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Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Momentum

WOBRB Leipzig
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
23,236

Teams

Coaches
P. Simonis · Ole Werner
Position
12 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Robin Braun

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
18.5° (feels 17.8°)
Wind
4.9
Humidity
51%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

WDDL 1W 2D 1L · 5 pts (1.25 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 5.56–5.46 · xPts 5.49

  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–1 xG 0.77–1.13 GER BI
  • D H FC Köln 3–3 xG 1.99–1.58 GER BI
  • D H FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 0.64–1.94 GER BI
  • W A FC Heidenheim 3–1 xG 2.16–0.81 GER BI

RB Leipzig

LWWW 3W 0D 1L · 9 pts (2.25 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 8.24–5.61 · xPts 6.83

  • W H FC Köln 3–1 xG 3.5–1.49 GER BI
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 1–0 xG 1.41–1.17 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 2.61–1.0 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–6 xG 0.72–1.95 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2016

VfL Wolfsburg 56 draws9 RB Leipzig

Goals 21–31 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 45%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 31 draws6 RB Leipzig

Goals 12–18 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 11 draws3 RB Leipzig

Goals 9–10 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D RB Leipzig 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 1–5 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 3–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–3 RB Leipzig neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 RB Leipzig neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17RB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.591.911.59
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 1120 / 5 / 98 / 3 / 6
Goals for / match1.321.241.941.53
Goals against / match2.031.881.381.59
Clean sheets6%6%32%29%
Failed to score24%29%9%18%
Both teams scored74%71%62%59%
Over 2.565%65%71%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.582.071.70
xG against / match1.891.691.421.40
xG difference-0.50-0.110.650.30
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.35-0.13-0.17
xPts / match1.141.341.761.55
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.750.160.04
Game state
Scored first53%35%74%59%
PPG when scoring first1.441.172.282.30
PPG when conceding first0.130.200.870.50
Came back from behind10%15%25%14%
Leads held35%25%74%73%
Minutes leading27%18%37%32%
Minutes level43%48%47%47%
Minutes trailing30%34%16%21%
First goal (min)35383834
First goal conceded (min)43384843
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%64%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.240.290.12
Late goals against0.560.470.440.41
Style
Possession45%48%54%52%
Shots11.913.615.814.3
On target4.24.76.04.7
Shot conversion11%9%12%11%
Shots inside box64%66%72%65%
Big chances created2.63.03.62.6
Corners4.45.45.34.7
xG from set plays32%32%22%20%
Goals from headers25%33%14%8%
Pressure index9.112.716.112.2
Dominant minutes38.146.354.547.1
Pass accuracy78%80%84%83%
Fouls11.512.19.310.4
Cards2.152.291.531.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 36% P 36%3.6Draw 26% P 26%2.5Away 38% P 38%

Double Chance

1.5Wolfsburg or Draw 31% P 31%1.28Wolfsburg or RB Leipzig 36% P 37%1.44Draw or RB Leipzig 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65% P 67%2.62No 35% P 33%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 64%2.62Under 36% P 36%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 37.5–40% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-1.3
Draw26%26%30%+4.3
Away38%38%35%-3.0

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes67%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Robin Braun

Career
13 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.0 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
21.5 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.54
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 13 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match21.522.3-0.86
Fouls per card4.75.4-1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.540.32+2.37100
Time added8.56.8+1.6696
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-30 71 212 37'14
2025-02-02 71 210 34'9
2024-11-24 10 150 54'5