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Bundesliga · Matchweek 6

Momentum

BVBRB Leipzig
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Capacity
81,365
Surface
grass
Attendance
81,365

Teams

Coaches
Niko Kovač · Ole Werner
Position
2 · 3
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
14.9° (feels 14.6°)
Wind
7.5
Humidity
83%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Borussia Dortmund

WDWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 13 GA 5 · xG 7.84–4.43 · xPts 9.13

  • W H Athletic Club 4–1 xG 1.11–0.71 UEFA CL
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 2–0 xG 1.26–0.59 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 xG 1.13–0.77 GER BI
  • D A Juventus 4–4 xG 1.83–1.95 UEFA CL
  • W A FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 2.5–0.41 GER BI

RB Leipzig

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 10.79–8.43 · xPts 8.11

  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 xG 2.56–2.82 GER BI
  • W H FC Köln 3–1 xG 3.5–1.49 GER BI
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 1–0 xG 1.41–1.17 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 2.61–1.0 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–6 xG 0.72–1.95 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2016

Borussia Dortmund 84 draws8 RB Leipzig

Goals 32–35 · 3.35 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund 22 draws6 RB Leipzig

Goals 12–23 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund 12 draws2 RB Leipzig

Goals 6–10 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D RB Leipzig 2–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 4–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–3 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–4 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 2–1 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBorussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund at home · 17RB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.152.411.911.59
W / D / L22 / 7 / 513 / 2 / 220 / 5 / 98 / 3 / 6
Goals for / match2.062.351.941.53
Goals against / match1.000.941.381.59
Clean sheets44%53%32%29%
Failed to score6%6%9%18%
Both teams scored50%41%62%59%
Over 2.556%59%71%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.252.071.70
xG against / match1.251.081.421.40
xG difference0.581.180.650.30
Finishing vs xG0.230.10-0.13-0.17
xPts / match1.692.011.761.55
Points vs xPts0.460.400.160.04
Game state
Scored first76%76%74%59%
PPG when scoring first2.502.622.282.30
PPG when conceding first1.001.750.870.50
Came back from behind54%67%25%14%
Leads held79%87%74%73%
Minutes leading42%48%37%32%
Minutes level46%40%47%47%
Minutes trailing12%13%16%21%
First goal (min)39343834
First goal conceded (min)48354843
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%50%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%62%64%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.590.650.290.12
Late goals against0.350.180.440.41
Style
Possession53%56%54%52%
Shots13.114.815.814.3
On target4.85.46.04.7
Shot conversion16%16%12%11%
Shots inside box74%72%72%65%
Big chances created3.23.93.62.6
Corners5.37.25.34.7
xG from set plays36%38%22%20%
Goals from headers23%20%14%8%
Pressure index16.821.516.112.2
Dominant minutes55.464.554.547.1
Pass accuracy83%85%84%83%
Fouls11.611.59.310.4
Cards1.911.591.531.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 56% P 57%4.75Draw 20% P 21%4.0Away 24% P 22%

Double Chance

1.22Borussia Dortmund or Draw 38% P 39%1.18Borussia Dortmund or RB Leipzig 40% P 40%2.1Draw or RB Leipzig 22% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.36Yes 69% P 69%3.0No 31% P 31%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.3Over 73% P 72%3.5Under 27% P 28%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 20–22.5% · 298 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home57%56%60%+4.1
Draw21%23%21%-1.7
Away22%21%18%-2.4

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 59%

Both teams to score · yes 67.5–70% · 136 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes69%69%68%-0.9

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.572%71%70%-1.4

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.14-0.5626
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.32-1.2215
Time added6.86.8-0.1241
First card
36' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-24 50 320 2'5
2025-09-19 20 281 40'7
2025-08-24 30 200 34'8
2025-08-21 50 370 12'8
2025-08-14 10 191 14'8
2025-05-17 10 6
2025-05-02 10 220 45'18
2025-04-19 50 270 39'7
2025-03-29 50 210 16'7
2025-03-07 10 120 90'6