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Bundesliga · Matchweek 9

Momentum

FC KölnHamburger SV
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
9

Venue

Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Capacity
50,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
50,000

Teams

Coaches
Lukas Kwasniok · Merlin Polzin
Position
9 · 13
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Daniel Schlager

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
12.5° (feels 11.7°)
Wind
4.8
Humidity
72%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Köln

LLWDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 4.44–9.89 · xPts 3.64

  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–1 xG 0.59–1.89 GER BI
  • D H FC Augsburg 1–1 xG 0.63–1.12 GER BI
  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 xG 0.98–1.36 GER BI
  • L H VfB Stuttgart 1–2 xG 0.76–2.02 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 1–3 xG 1.49–3.5 GER BI

Hamburger SV

WDWLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 10.35–6.24 · xPts 9.21

  • L H VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 xG 3.17–0.57 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 1–2 xG 1.51–1.23 GER BI
  • W H FSV Mainz 05 4–0 xG 1.65–0.79 GER BI
  • D A FC Union Berlin 0–0 xG 1.36–1.52 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–1 xG 2.66–2.13 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2005

FC Köln 84 draws8 Hamburger SV

Goals 33–33 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Köln 53 draws2 Hamburger SV

Goals 17–9 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Köln 21 draws2 Hamburger SV

Goals 9–7 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 0–2 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 1–3 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Hamburger SV 2–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 3–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 2–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 0–2 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 0–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Köln all · 34FC Köln at home · 17Hamburger SV all · 34Hamburger SV away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.941.121.120.82
W / D / L7 / 11 / 165 / 4 / 89 / 11 / 143 / 5 / 9
Goals for / match1.441.761.180.88
Goals against / match1.851.761.591.88
Clean sheets9%6%18%24%
Failed to score12%6%29%35%
Both teams scored79%88%65%59%
Over 2.565%76%56%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.591.311.12
xG against / match1.661.441.812.08
xG difference-0.180.14-0.50-0.96
Finishing vs xG-0.050.18-0.14-0.24
xPts / match1.271.441.140.91
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.32-0.02-0.09
Game state
Scored first41%53%35%24%
PPG when scoring first1.571.561.581.00
PPG when conceding first0.500.630.830.70
Came back from behind38%33%36%25%
Leads held44%46%56%50%
Minutes leading19%27%16%12%
Minutes level51%47%58%58%
Minutes trailing30%26%26%29%
First goal (min)42364350
First goal conceded (min)44464041
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%63%58%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%57%54%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.560.650.180.12
Late goals against0.350.290.380.53
Style
Possession47%49%45%45%
Shots13.415.212.311.3
On target4.75.64.64.4
Shot conversion11%12%10%8%
Shots inside box70%69%66%60%
Big chances created2.52.91.91.3
Corners4.64.83.73.6
xG from set plays27%25%29%31%
Goals from headers16%17%8%7%
Pressure index11.013.39.17.8
Dominant minutes42.849.938.335.2
Pass accuracy80%80%80%80%
Fouls8.38.511.811.6
Cards2.002.062.682.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

Hamburger SV

0–15'34
16–30'411
31–45'1010
46–60'910
61–75'86
76–90'613

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.492
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253
When behind-0.213
10 min after conceding-0.453

Situations

Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.163

Behind vs level +0.04

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-317 50%1.291.291.351.321.54
3-4-2-110 29%1.31.31.41.462.13
3-4-1-23 9%0.00.673.00.972.31
4-3-31 3%1.01.01.00.961.67
5-4-11 3%0.00.05.00.772.73

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.4Home 40% P 39%3.7Draw 26% P 27%2.75Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.4Cologne or Draw 33% P 33%1.28Cologne or Hamburg 36% P 37%1.53Draw or Hamburg 30% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62% P 65%2.5No 38% P 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 61%2.3Under 41% P 39%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%+0.4
Draw27%28%28%+0.1
Away35%34%33%-0.5

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes65%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,029 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.561%61%63%+1.6

Daniel Schlager

Career
120 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.56 (4.36 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 71 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.38
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.87 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.380.32+0.5874
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-24 40 190 23'9
2025-10-05 40 220 54'4
2025-10-02 51 210 2'10
2025-09-20 31 230 16'13
2025-08-31 21 9
2025-08-28 91 320 20'9
2025-08-14 50 200 8'9
2025-08-07 10 200 73'14
2025-05-17 16 3
2025-04-13 51 250 6'2