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Bundesliga · Matchweek 9

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05SVW
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
9

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,305

Teams

Coaches
Bo Henriksen · Horst Steffen
Position
16 · 9
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Florian Badstübner

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
13.3° (feels 12.8°)
Wind
5.4
Humidity
81%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FSV Mainz 05

WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 9.81–7.57 · xPts 8.05

  • L A VfB Stuttgart 1–2 xG 1.72–1.68 GER BI
  • W H Zrinjski 1–0 xG 3.55–0.1 UEFA ECL
  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–4 xG 1.82–3.65 GER BI
  • L A Hamburger SV 0–4 xG 0.79–1.65 GER BI
  • W A Omonia Nicosia 1–0 xG 1.93–0.49 UEFA ECL

Werder Bremen

LLWDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 9 · xG 6.02–10.16 · xPts 5.41

  • W H FC Union Berlin 1–0 xG 1.09–0.67 GER BI
  • D A FC Heidenheim 2–2 xG 1.2–3.15 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 1–0 xG 1.8–0.97 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–4 xG 0.41–3.59 GER BI
  • L H SC Freiburg 0–3 xG 1.52–1.79 GER BI

All meetings · 36 matches since 2005

FSV Mainz 05 117 draws18 Werder Bremen

Goals 47–58 · 2.92 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FSV Mainz 05 32 draws5 Werder Bremen

Goals 9–12 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05 11 draws3 Werder Bremen

Goals 4–5 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • W Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 4–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 at home · 17Werder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.181.000.940.76
W / D / L10 / 10 / 144 / 5 / 88 / 8 / 183 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.291.241.091.06
Goals against / match1.561.471.761.71
Clean sheets12%12%18%18%
Failed to score29%35%38%41%
Both teams scored62%59%47%47%
Over 2.553%41%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.581.741.211.01
xG against / match1.651.401.581.82
xG difference-0.070.34-0.37-0.81
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.50-0.120.05
xPts / match1.391.601.210.95
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.60-0.27-0.19
Game state
Scored first47%41%29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.811.712.101.60
PPG when conceding first0.590.440.430.36
Came back from behind33%27%25%17%
Leads held53%50%62%50%
Minutes leading28%23%16%16%
Minutes level43%49%41%44%
Minutes trailing29%28%43%40%
First goal (min)37365250
First goal conceded (min)44453536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%52%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%60%57%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.350.410.24
Late goals against0.590.530.320.35
Style
Possession44%46%51%48%
Shots12.113.613.110.8
On target4.24.24.13.6
Shot conversion11%9%8%10%
Shots inside box76%77%62%61%
Big chances created3.23.41.71.5
Corners5.16.24.64.2
xG from set plays39%38%24%24%
Goals from headers18%14%19%6%
Pressure index10.912.912.68.1
Dominant minutes44.050.347.835.1
Pass accuracy75%76%82%81%
Fouls11.011.89.99.5
Cards2.241.942.472.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.472
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 52% P 51%3.7Draw 24% P 25%3.8Away 24% P 24%

Double Chance

1.25Mainz or Draw 38% P 38%1.28Mainz or Werder Bremen 37% P 38%1.9Draw or Werder Bremen 25% P 24%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62% P 64%2.5No 38% P 36%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 62%2.5Under 38% P 38%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 53%1.83Under 50% P 47%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 22.5–25% · 500 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%53%+2.3
Draw25%25%23%-2.6
Away24%23%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes64%64%64%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,029 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.6

Florian Badstübner

Career
85 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.53 (3.39 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 66 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.714.15-1.127
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.34
Fouls per card6.15.4+1.04 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.33-0.1533
Time added6.06.8-0.9711
First card
39' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-18 20 200 6'8
2025-10-02 40 370 25'7
2025-08-22 50 260 34'11
2025-07-17 51 310 59'5
2025-05-10 20 210 25'4
2025-04-20 30 140 71'4
2025-03-29 30 170 13'7
2025-03-01 10 330 53'2
2025-02-09 41 200 1'5
2025-01-25 10 170 88'3