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Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Momentum

FCUFCB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Capacity
22,012
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,012

Teams

Coaches
Steffen Baumgart · Vincent Kompany
Position
10 · 1
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Florian Exner

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
9.7° (feels 8.1°)
Wind
3.4
Humidity
71%

Where to watch · 428

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  • Zimbabwe New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Union Berlin

DLWLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 4 · xG 6.49–6.86 · xPts 6.65

  • D H SC Freiburg 0–0 xG 1.27–1.27 GER BI
  • L A Werder Bremen 0–1 xG 0.67–1.09 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 xG 1.9–0.83 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 xG 1.13–2.32 GER BI
  • D H Hamburger SV 0–0 xG 1.52–1.36 GER BI

FC Bayern München

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 2 · xG 11.96–4.86 · xPts 10.58

  • W A Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 1.2–1.76 UEFA CL
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–0 xG 1.86–0.58 GER BI
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 2.78–0.79 GER BI
  • W H Club Brugge 4–0 xG 3.78–0.28 UEFA CL
  • W H Borussia Dortmund 2–1 xG 2.34–1.45 GER BI

All meetings · 14 matches since 2019

FC Union Berlin 05 draws9 FC Bayern München

Goals 10–35 · 3.21 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Union Berlin 03 draws7 FC Bayern München

Goals 7–29 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Union Berlin 02 draws3 FC Bayern München

Goals 4–15 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Bayern München 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 2–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 3–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 1–5 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 1–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 3–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 2–5 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Union Berlin all · 34FC Union Berlin at home · 17FC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.151.292.622.65
W / D / L10 / 9 / 155 / 7 / 528 / 5 / 114 / 3 / 0
Goals for / match1.291.533.593.18
Goals against / match1.711.531.061.00
Clean sheets21%24%35%41%
Failed to score24%18%0%0%
Both teams scored62%71%65%59%
Over 2.562%71%94%88%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.371.562.702.47
xG against / match1.481.161.221.46
xG difference-0.110.401.481.01
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.030.890.71
xPts / match1.371.642.151.95
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.350.470.70
Game state
Scored first41%47%65%53%
PPG when scoring first2.212.002.773.00
PPG when conceding first0.330.572.332.25
Came back from behind29%44%93%100%
Leads held71%62%90%93%
Minutes leading18%27%50%41%
Minutes level50%47%36%42%
Minutes trailing31%26%14%17%
First goal (min)53453240
First goal conceded (min)43443835
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half66%62%59%74%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%58%47%47%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.531.031.24
Late goals against0.410.470.320.24
Style
Possession40%41%67%67%
Shots12.513.219.216.8
On target3.94.48.58.1
Shot conversion10%12%19%19%
Shots inside box73%71%68%70%
Big chances created2.22.54.94.2
Corners5.05.26.45.1
xG from set plays48%50%23%22%
Goals from headers21%23%11%13%
Pressure index9.19.827.525.0
Dominant minutes34.737.374.268.6
Pass accuracy72%70%90%89%
Fouls12.312.18.89.1
Cards2.152.591.792.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Union Berlin

0–15'34
16–30'65
31–45'618
46–60'611
61–75'66
76–90'1714

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

FC Bayern München · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.85) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.24

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.854
Early press (0-15, level)+1.044

Game state

When ahead+0.823
When level+0.874
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.243

Situations

At home+0.622
Away+1.042
4+ days rest+0.753

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.622
As favourite+0.854

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.434
Conceded when ahead-0.473
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.05

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-119 56%1.211.211.471.441.36
3-5-26 18%0.51.172.670.932.24
5-3-25 15%0.81.02.21.161.45
4-2-3-12 6%3.03.50.52.551.07
4-2-2-21 3%3.01.00.00.641.39

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

11.0Home 9% P 7%6.5Draw 14% P 14%1.22Away 77% P 79%

Double Chance

4.0Union Berlin or Draw 12% P 11%1.11Union Berlin or Bayern Munich 43% P 43%1.05Draw or Bayern Munich 45% P 46%

Draw No Bet

10.01 10%1.062 90%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 51%2.0No 47% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 70%3.2Under 30% P 30%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 49%1.83Under 50% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 5–10% · away 75–80% · 344 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home7%8%7%-1.0
Draw14%15%12%-3.0
Away79%77%81%+4.1

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 64%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.570%69%69%+0.6

Florian Exner

Career
26 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.85 (4.58 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
52%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.044.14+1.8296
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card4.35.4-1.83 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.32+0.6378
Time added9.96.8+3.13100
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-18 80 302 30'15
2025-09-27 30 220 90'13
2025-09-20 60 250 22'11
2025-08-30 · FC Bayern München 70 250 31'20
2025-05-03 92 291 16'10
2025-04-11 50 270 34'6
2025-03-15 · FC Union Berlin · FC Bayern München 30 210 53'6
2025-02-22 51 190 13'10
2025-02-01 · FC Bayern München 20 170 78'6
2025-01-19 · FC Union Berlin 40 222 26'7