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Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Momentum

B04Heidenheim
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,257

Teams

Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand · Frank Schmidt
Position
5 · 18
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-2-1

Referee

Bastian Dankert

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
12.6° (feels 11.8°)
Wind
1.8
Humidity
73%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 13 · xG 8.51–8.63 · xPts 6.61

  • W A Benfica 1–0 xG 0.64–1.88 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–3 xG 0.58–1.86 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 2–0 xG 1.82–0.7 GER BI
  • L H Paris Saint Germain 2–7 xG 1.82–2.37 UEFA CL
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 4–3 xG 3.65–1.82 GER BI

Heidenheim

WLDLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 7.03–6.72 · xPts 6.71

  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 xG 0.81–1.13 GER BI
  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 1–3 xG 1.25–2.16 GER BI
  • D H Werder Bremen 2–2 xG 3.15–1.2 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–1 xG 0.51–1.3 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 2–1 xG 1.31–0.93 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 51 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 21–7 · 4.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 83%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 51 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 21–7 · 4.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 83%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 41 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 17–6 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D FC Heidenheim 3–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6–0 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–2 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 17Heidenheim all · 34Heidenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.741.820.760.53
W / D / L17 / 8 / 99 / 4 / 46 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match2.002.241.211.06
Goals against / match1.381.122.122.06
Clean sheets24%35%3%0%
Failed to score12%0%35%35%
Both teams scored65%65%62%65%
Over 2.559%53%68%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.421.361.27
xG against / match1.401.101.911.89
xG difference0.511.33-0.55-0.62
Finishing vs xG0.09-0.19-0.16-0.21
xPts / match1.652.101.101.04
Points vs xPts0.08-0.27-0.33-0.51
Game state
Scored first65%71%24%18%
PPG when scoring first2.232.172.001.67
PPG when conceding first0.831.000.380.29
Came back from behind40%43%23%14%
Leads held68%69%46%33%
Minutes leading40%42%15%12%
Minutes level39%42%48%50%
Minutes trailing20%16%37%39%
First goal (min)34384553
First goal conceded (min)39483941
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%50%61%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%47%54%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.320.24
Late goals against0.260.180.440.35
Style
Possession59%61%42%43%
Shots15.218.611.411.3
On target5.26.53.63.3
Shot conversion13%12%11%9%
Shots inside box64%66%69%72%
Big chances created3.74.32.52.4
Corners5.66.74.54.4
xG from set plays27%28%33%27%
Goals from headers19%24%15%17%
Pressure index16.120.57.78.0
Dominant minutes57.164.835.333.2
Pass accuracy88%88%76%76%
Fouls8.68.69.810.3
Cards2.182.121.441.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.4Home 68% P 68%5.0Draw 19% P 19%7.5Away 13% P 13%

Double Chance

1.1Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 43% P 44%1.16Bayer Leverkusen or Heidenheim 40% P 41%2.75Draw or Heidenheim 17% P 16%

Draw No Bet

1.141 83%5.52 17%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 55%2.0No 47% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 62%2.5Under 38% P 38%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 67.5–70% · away 12.5–15% · 243 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home68%68%68%-0.1
Draw19%18%18%-0.3
Away13%13%14%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.4 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.5

Bastian Dankert

Career
206 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.13 (3.94 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 65 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.894.14-0.7222
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.47
Fouls per card6.25.4+1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.32-1.647
Time added6.26.8-0.7515
First card
38' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-18 40 290 20'6
2025-09-28 30 240 45'10
2025-09-13 50 260 68'30
2025-05-10 40 190 2'7
2025-04-26 40 300 36'6
2025-04-12 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 30 230 84'4
2025-03-29 · Heidenheim 60 181 32'12
2025-03-08 31 170 8'5
2025-02-22 40 210 17'1
2025-01-25 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 40 180 40'8