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Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Momentum

SC FreiburgSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
34,700

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Alexander Blessin
Position
11 · 16
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Benjamin Brand

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
10.4° (feels 9.9°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
93%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

DWLDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 7.27–6.58 · xPts 7.36

  • W A Nice 3–1 xG 2.13–1.59 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Union Berlin 0–0 xG 1.27–1.27 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 xG 0.7–1.82 GER BI
  • W H FC Utrecht 2–0 xG 1.7–0.89 UEFA EL
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 xG 1.48–1.01 GER BI

St. Pauli

LLLLL 0W 0D 5L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 1 GA 12 · xG 3.9–9.02 · xPts 3.69

  • L H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 xG 0.94–2.7 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–2 xG 0.4–1.79 GER BI
  • L H TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 xG 0.77–1.85 GER BI
  • L A Werder Bremen 0–1 xG 0.97–1.8 GER BI
  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 xG 0.83–0.89 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

SC Freiburg 31 draws2 St. Pauli

Goals 8–10 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 83%

Last 10 · 6 matches

SC Freiburg 31 draws2 St. Pauli

Goals 8–10 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 83%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 31 draws1 St. Pauli

Goals 7–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W St. Pauli 1–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 0–3 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D St. Pauli 2–2 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 1–3 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.880.760.53
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 36 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.501.940.850.71
Goals against / match1.681.291.761.71
Clean sheets18%12%15%18%
Failed to score26%6%38%41%
Both teams scored62%82%56%47%
Over 2.565%71%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.880.990.85
xG against / match1.521.311.671.70
xG difference-0.010.58-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.361.710.970.83
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first44%59%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.002.101.701.40
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.290.09
Came back from behind44%70%17%8%
Leads held68%69%54%40%
Minutes leading22%32%13%12%
Minutes level54%50%50%47%
Minutes trailing23%18%37%40%
First goal (min)38375047
First goal conceded (min)42454034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.210.12
Late goals against0.380.290.380.35
Style
Possession48%51%44%44%
Shots12.314.210.39.9
On target4.25.13.42.5
Shot conversion12%14%8%7%
Shots inside box69%69%59%57%
Big chances created2.32.81.71.5
Corners4.14.54.73.6
xG from set plays42%41%34%19%
Goals from headers14%9%24%25%
Pressure index14.318.38.46.2
Dominant minutes51.058.138.232.0
Pass accuracy80%80%77%77%
Fouls9.48.99.69.7
Cards1.621.651.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 54% P 54%3.6Draw 26% P 27%4.75Away 20% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18SC Freiburg or Draw 40% P 41%1.28SC Freiburg or St Pauli 37% P 37%2.0Draw or St Pauli 23% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 50%1.9No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 17.5–20% · 551 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home54%54%52%-1.7
Draw27%27%27%+0.4
Away19%19%20%+1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Benjamin Brand

Career
101 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.01 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 59 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.344.14+0.2763
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.39
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.28 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8889
Time added7.36.8+0.4078
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-25 40 180 44'11
2025-10-04 30 160 6'8
2025-09-20 20 180 45'8
2025-08-23 50 241 5'7
2025-05-17 · SC Freiburg 60 290 42'16
2025-04-26 60 261 41'18
2025-04-12 · St. Pauli 70 260 37'3
2025-03-15 · SC Freiburg 31 140 2'7
2025-02-28 80 250 39'3
2025-02-15 · SC Freiburg · St. Pauli 10 201 63'6