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Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Momentum

VFBFC Augsburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
58,500

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Sandro Wagner
Position
6 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
11.3° (feels 10.7°)
Wind
1.4
Humidity
85%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 6.93–6.88 · xPts 7.11

  • W H Feyenoord 2–0 xG 1.48–0.84 UEFA EL
  • L A RB Leipzig 1–3 xG 1.15–1.85 GER BI
  • W H FSV Mainz 05 2–1 xG 1.68–1.72 GER BI
  • L A Fenerbahçe 0–1 xG 0.99–2.02 UEFA EL
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 xG 1.63–0.46 GER BI

FC Augsburg

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 5.43–5.96 · xPts 6.71

  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–1 xG 0.96–0.43 GER BI
  • L H RB Leipzig 0–6 xG 0.73–2.27 GER BI
  • D A FC Köln 1–1 xG 1.12–0.63 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 xG 1.69–1.32 GER BI
  • L A FC Heidenheim 1–2 xG 0.93–1.31 GER BI

All meetings · 26 matches since 2011

VfB Stuttgart 152 draws9 FC Augsburg

Goals 42–40 · 3.15 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 69%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 81 draws1 FC Augsburg

Goals 24–12 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 50 draws0 FC Augsburg

Goals 14–4 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Augsburg 2–5 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–2 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 4–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 1–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 2–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–2 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 4–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17FC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.291.261.00
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 212 / 7 / 155 / 2 / 10
Goals for / match2.091.761.321.18
Goals against / match1.440.941.791.94
Clean sheets32%47%15%0%
Failed to score9%18%26%35%
Both teams scored62%41%62%65%
Over 2.574%47%62%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.391.42
xG against / match1.541.201.842.17
xG difference0.260.80-0.46-0.75
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.23-0.06-0.24
xPts / match1.581.861.171.02
Points vs xPts0.240.430.10-0.02
Game state
Scored first53%53%50%41%
PPG when scoring first2.332.781.761.14
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.750.90
Came back from behind56%71%21%23%
Leads held75%92%57%50%
Minutes leading32%30%24%18%
Minutes level47%58%46%44%
Minutes trailing21%11%30%38%
First goal (min)40434240
First goal conceded (min)38374138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%53%45%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%49%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.290.29
Late goals against0.500.470.290.41
Style
Possession58%58%44%43%
Shots15.216.613.213.2
On target6.16.24.64.2
Shot conversion14%11%10%9%
Shots inside box66%65%64%62%
Big chances created3.33.72.21.9
Corners5.75.94.64.0
xG from set plays24%22%31%36%
Goals from headers9%10%16%20%
Pressure index19.217.59.56.9
Dominant minutes61.563.440.534.2
Pass accuracy84%84%78%78%
Fouls9.69.311.010.8
Cards1.911.942.472.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.113
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.5Home 63% P 62%4.5Draw 21% P 21%6.0Away 16% P 16%

Double Chance

1.12VfB Stuttgart or Draw 42% P 42%1.2VfB Stuttgart or Augsburg 39% P 40%2.5Draw or Augsburg 19% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 60%2.0No 47% P 40%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 64%2.3Under 41% P 36%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw21%23%23%+0.7
Away16%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes60%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.154.14-0.1448
Fouls / match21.422.3-0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.32+0.1452
Time added6.76.8-0.2233
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-26 31 170 15'9
2025-10-23 60 270 13'7
2025-10-02 50 191 7'10
2025-09-14 · FC Augsburg 50 221 36'9
2025-08-23 40 180 12'8
2025-08-07 40 250 10'6
2025-05-17 41 181 9'5
2025-05-04 · FC Augsburg 20 241 85'8
2025-04-06 10 270 77'7
2025-03-16 40 280 54'7