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Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Momentum

FCBSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
11

Venue

Stadium
Allianz Arena, Munich
Capacity
75,024
Surface
grass
Attendance
75,000

Teams

Coaches
Vincent Kompany · Julian Schuster
Position
1 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Sven Jablonski

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
-3.9° (feels -3.9°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
83%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Bayern München

WWWWD 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 14 GA 3 · xG 10.71–4.33 · xPts 10.14

  • D A FC Union Berlin 2–2 xG 1.09–0.92 GER BI
  • W A Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 1.2–1.76 UEFA CL
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–0 xG 1.86–0.58 GER BI
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 2.78–0.79 GER BI
  • W H Club Brugge 4–0 xG 3.78–0.28 UEFA CL

SC Freiburg

WLDWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 7.11–6.13 · xPts 7.61

  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 1.32–0.55 GER BI
  • W A Nice 3–1 xG 2.13–1.59 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Union Berlin 0–0 xG 1.27–1.27 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 xG 0.7–1.82 GER BI
  • W H FC Utrecht 2–0 xG 1.7–0.89 UEFA EL

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

FC Bayern München 256 draws1 SC Freiburg

Goals 85–26 · 3.47 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 72%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Bayern München 91 draws0 SC Freiburg

Goals 30–9 · 3.9 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Bayern München 41 draws0 SC Freiburg

Goals 15–7 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W SC Freiburg 2–3 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 6–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 2–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 2–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 3–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 0–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 5–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–4 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 2–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.622.591.380.88
W / D / L28 / 5 / 114 / 2 / 113 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match3.594.001.501.06
Goals against / match1.061.121.682.06
Clean sheets35%29%18%24%
Failed to score0%0%26%47%
Both teams scored65%71%62%41%
Over 2.594%100%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.702.941.511.14
xG against / match1.220.991.521.74
xG difference1.481.94-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG0.891.06-0.01-0.08
xPts / match2.152.351.361.01
Points vs xPts0.470.240.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first65%76%44%29%
PPG when scoring first2.772.622.001.80
PPG when conceding first2.332.500.880.40
Came back from behind93%83%44%23%
Leads held90%88%68%67%
Minutes leading50%59%22%12%
Minutes level36%31%54%59%
Minutes trailing14%10%23%29%
First goal (min)32253840
First goal conceded (min)38414238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%47%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half47%47%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)1.030.820.350.24
Late goals against0.320.410.380.47
Style
Possession67%68%48%45%
Shots19.221.512.310.3
On target8.58.94.23.3
Shot conversion19%19%12%10%
Shots inside box68%66%69%68%
Big chances created4.95.52.31.7
Corners6.47.64.13.7
xG from set plays23%24%42%43%
Goals from headers11%9%14%24%
Pressure index27.530.114.310.3
Dominant minutes74.279.851.043.8
Pass accuracy90%91%80%80%
Fouls8.88.59.49.8
Cards1.791.351.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Bayern München · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.86) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.865
Early press (0-15, level)+0.905

Game state

When ahead+0.894
When level+0.855
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.324

Situations

At home+0.693
Away+1.052
4+ days rest+0.784

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.612
v bottom-tier opponents+0.972
As favourite+0.865

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.445
Conceded when ahead-0.474
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level +0.04

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.25 · Behind vs level +2.14

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 9 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.16Home 81% P 81%8.0Draw 12% P 12%13.0Away 7% P 6%

Double Chance

1.04Bayern Munich or Draw 46% P 47%1.08Bayern Munich or SC Freiburg 44% P 44%5.0Draw or SC Freiburg 10% P 8%

Draw No Bet

1.051 91%11.02 9%

Both Teams To Score

2.05Yes 45% P 46%1.7No 55% P 54%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 69%3.2Under 30% P 31%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.2Over 42% P 38%1.61Under 58% P 62%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–82.5% · away 5–7.5% · 442 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home81%81%83%+1.6
Draw12%13%11%-1.8
Away6%6%6%+0.2

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes46%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Sven Jablonski

Career
115 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
3.53 (3.45 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.22
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.784.15-0.9615
Fouls / match20.622.3-1.66
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.10 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.33-1.1018
Time added6.26.8-0.7615
First card
34' on average
Card timing
21% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-05 30 250 70'8
2025-11-01 30 180 38'8
2025-10-19 40 270 43'9
2025-09-24 40 320 24'6
2025-09-21 50 211 63'16
2025-09-13 10 230 7'7
2025-08-30 30 180 24'11
2025-05-10 · FC Bayern München 20 110 49'4
2025-04-26 · SC Freiburg 41 150 8'6
2025-04-12 61 290 23'4