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Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Momentum

RB LeipzigSVW
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
11

Venue

Stadium
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Capacity
47,069
Surface
grass
Attendance
47,800

Teams

Coaches
Ole Werner · Horst Steffen
Position
4 · 8
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Martin Petersen

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
-0.6° (feels -5.4°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
66%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

RB Leipzig

DWWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 6 · xG 8.62–6.29 · xPts 8.37

  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 1–3 xG 2.0–1.82 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 3–1 xG 1.85–1.15 GER BI
  • W A FC Augsburg 6–0 xG 2.27–0.73 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 1.23–1.51 GER BI
  • D A Borussia Dortmund 1–1 xG 1.28–1.07 GER BI

Werder Bremen

WDWDW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 6.31–6.83 · xPts 6.89

  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 xG 1.64–0.66 GER BI
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 0.58–1.38 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 1–0 xG 1.09–0.67 GER BI
  • D A FC Heidenheim 2–2 xG 1.2–3.15 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 1–0 xG 1.8–0.97 GER BI

All meetings · 19 matches since 2016

RB Leipzig 124 draws3 Werder Bremen

Goals 37–20 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 63% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

RB Leipzig 63 draws1 Werder Bremen

Goals 19–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

RB Leipzig 31 draws1 Werder Bremen

Goals 9–6 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 0–0 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 2–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–4 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
MetricRB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig at home · 17Werder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.912.240.940.76
W / D / L20 / 5 / 912 / 2 / 38 / 8 / 183 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.942.351.091.06
Goals against / match1.381.181.761.71
Clean sheets32%35%18%18%
Failed to score9%0%38%41%
Both teams scored62%65%47%47%
Over 2.571%76%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.072.441.211.01
xG against / match1.421.431.581.82
xG difference0.651.01-0.37-0.81
Finishing vs xG-0.13-0.09-0.120.05
xPts / match1.761.961.210.95
Points vs xPts0.160.27-0.27-0.19
Game state
Scored first74%88%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.282.272.101.60
PPG when conceding first0.872.000.430.36
Came back from behind25%40%25%17%
Leads held74%75%62%50%
Minutes leading37%42%16%16%
Minutes level47%47%41%44%
Minutes trailing16%11%43%40%
First goal (min)38415250
First goal conceded (min)48523536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%52%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%75%57%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.470.410.24
Late goals against0.440.470.320.35
Style
Possession54%56%51%48%
Shots15.817.313.110.8
On target6.07.34.13.6
Shot conversion12%14%8%10%
Shots inside box72%77%62%61%
Big chances created3.64.71.71.5
Corners5.35.94.64.2
xG from set plays22%24%24%24%
Goals from headers14%18%19%6%
Pressure index16.120.112.68.1
Dominant minutes54.561.847.835.1
Pass accuracy84%85%82%81%
Fouls9.38.19.99.5
Cards1.531.352.472.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.462
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.53Home 62% P 63%4.75Draw 20% P 20%5.25Away 18% P 17%

Double Chance

1.12RB Leipzig or Draw 42% P 41%1.16RB Leipzig or Werder Bremen 40% P 40%2.62Draw or Werder Bremen 18% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.181 79%4.52 21%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65% P 67%2.62No 35% P 33%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.33Over 72% P 71%3.4Under 28% P 29%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home63%63%64%+0.7
Draw20%21%19%-2.0
Away17%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes67%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.571%71%70%-1.4

Martin Petersen

Career
91 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.05 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 53 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.554.14+0.7478
Fouls / match23.822.3+1.24
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1037
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-25 60 261 24'12
2025-09-27 80 240 21'18
2025-05-04 10 200 72'12
2025-04-12 31 230 30'2
2025-03-15 30 160 30'6
2025-02-23 · RB Leipzig 60 302 6'10
2025-01-31 · Werder Bremen 112 271 10'12
2025-01-14 41 240 42'10
2024-11-30 · RB Leipzig 30 170 26'22