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Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Momentum

B04BVB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,210

Teams

Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand · Niko Kovač
Position
3 · 5
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Tobias Welz

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
9.9° (feels 7.8°)
Wind
4.2
Humidity
89%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 6.14–8.11 · xPts 5.07

  • W A Manchester City 2–0 xG 0.69–2.06 UEFA CL
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 xG 0.77–2.22 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 6–0 xG 3.46–0.09 GER BI
  • W A Benfica 1–0 xG 0.64–1.88 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–3 xG 0.58–1.86 GER BI

Borussia Dortmund

WLDDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 10 GA 8 · xG 10.16–6.2 · xPts 8.53

  • W H Villarreal 4–0 xG 4.11–1.15 UEFA CL
  • D H VfB Stuttgart 3–3 xG 3.26–1.92 GER BI
  • D A Hamburger SV 1–1 xG 1.02–0.57 GER BI
  • L A Manchester City 1–4 xG 1.33–1.59 UEFA CL
  • W A FC Augsburg 1–0 xG 0.43–0.96 GER BI

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 139 draws20 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 58–80 · 3.29 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 32 draws5 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 17–19 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 21 draws2 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 8–9 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–4 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–4 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 17Borussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.741.822.151.88
W / D / L17 / 8 / 99 / 4 / 422 / 7 / 59 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match2.002.242.061.76
Goals against / match1.381.121.001.06
Clean sheets24%35%44%35%
Failed to score12%0%6%6%
Both teams scored65%65%50%59%
Over 2.559%53%56%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.421.831.40
xG against / match1.401.101.251.42
xG difference0.511.330.58-0.02
Finishing vs xG0.09-0.190.230.36
xPts / match1.652.101.691.37
Points vs xPts0.08-0.270.460.51
Game state
Scored first65%71%76%76%
PPG when scoring first2.232.172.502.38
PPG when conceding first0.831.001.000.25
Came back from behind40%43%54%40%
Leads held68%69%79%69%
Minutes leading40%42%42%36%
Minutes level39%42%46%52%
Minutes trailing20%16%12%12%
First goal (min)34383944
First goal conceded (min)39484858
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%50%54%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%47%68%72%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.590.53
Late goals against0.260.180.350.53
Style
Possession59%61%53%51%
Shots15.218.613.111.4
On target5.26.54.84.2
Shot conversion13%12%16%16%
Shots inside box64%66%74%77%
Big chances created3.74.33.22.5
Corners5.66.75.33.4
xG from set plays27%28%36%34%
Goals from headers19%24%23%27%
Pressure index16.120.516.812.0
Dominant minutes57.164.855.446.4
Pass accuracy88%88%83%82%
Fouls8.68.611.611.6
Cards2.182.121.912.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.45Away 39% P 38%

Double Chance

1.5Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 31% P 31%1.28Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Dortmund 36% P 36%1.44Draw or Borussia Dortmund 32% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61% P 66%2.37No 39% P 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 60%2.2Under 43% P 40%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 50%1.83Under 50% P 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%31%-2.8
Draw27%28%28%-0.1
Away38%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes66%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%61%63%+1.5

Tobias Welz

Career
167 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.96 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 50 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.564.14+0.7682
Fouls / match23.322.3+0.77
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.37 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.32-0.5622
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
26' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-18 40 250 18'10
2025-09-27 70 360 4'12
2025-09-13 11 252 57'12
2025-05-17 50 221 39'4
2025-04-25 40 300 21'9
2025-04-12 · Borussia Dortmund 13 3
2025-03-08 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 80 220 18'9
2025-02-15 60 251 8'10
2025-02-01 50 250 42'5
2025-01-14 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 50 180 17'5