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Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Momentum

FCBSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Allianz Arena, Munich
Capacity
75,024
Surface
grass
Attendance
75,000

Teams

Coaches
Vincent Kompany · Alexander Blessin
Position
1 · 16
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 5-4-1

Referee

Felix Zwayer

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
3.8° (feels 1.9°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
93%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Bayern München

WWDWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 8 · xG 7.52–6.45 · xPts 7.66

  • L A Arsenal 1–3 xG 0.7–2.49 UEFA CL
  • W H SC Freiburg 6–2 xG 2.67–0.71 GER BI
  • D A FC Union Berlin 2–2 xG 1.09–0.92 GER BI
  • W A Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 1.2–1.76 UEFA CL
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–0 xG 1.86–0.58 GER BI

St. Pauli

LLLLL 0W 0D 5L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 1 GA 12 · xG 3.39–8.09 · xPts 3.91

  • L H FC Union Berlin 0–1 xG 0.73–0.44 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 1–2 xG 0.55–1.32 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 xG 0.94–2.7 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–2 xG 0.4–1.79 GER BI
  • L H TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 xG 0.77–1.85 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

FC Bayern München 60 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 23–4 · 4.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 83%

Last 10 · 6 matches

FC Bayern München 60 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 23–4 · 4.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 83%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Bayern München 50 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 20–4 · 4.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W St. Pauli 0–5 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 3–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 3–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 1–8 FC Bayern München neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 3–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.622.590.760.53
W / D / L28 / 5 / 114 / 2 / 16 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match3.594.000.850.71
Goals against / match1.061.121.761.71
Clean sheets35%29%15%18%
Failed to score0%0%38%41%
Both teams scored65%71%56%47%
Over 2.594%100%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.702.940.990.85
xG against / match1.220.991.671.70
xG difference1.481.94-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG0.891.06-0.14-0.14
xPts / match2.152.350.970.83
Points vs xPts0.470.24-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first65%76%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.772.621.701.40
PPG when conceding first2.332.500.290.09
Came back from behind93%83%17%8%
Leads held90%88%54%40%
Minutes leading50%59%13%12%
Minutes level36%31%50%47%
Minutes trailing14%10%37%40%
First goal (min)32255047
First goal conceded (min)38414034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%47%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half47%47%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)1.030.820.210.12
Late goals against0.320.410.380.35
Style
Possession67%68%44%44%
Shots19.221.510.39.9
On target8.58.93.42.5
Shot conversion19%19%8%7%
Shots inside box68%66%59%57%
Big chances created4.95.51.71.5
Corners6.47.64.73.6
xG from set plays23%24%34%19%
Goals from headers11%9%24%25%
Pressure index27.530.18.46.2
Dominant minutes74.279.838.232.0
Pass accuracy90%91%77%77%
Fouls8.88.59.69.7
Cards1.791.351.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Bayern München · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.85) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.24

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.854
Early press (0-15, level)+1.044

Game state

When ahead+0.823
When level+0.874
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.243

Situations

At home+0.622
Away+1.042
4+ days rest+0.753

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.622
As favourite+0.854

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.434
Conceded when ahead-0.473
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.05

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.1Home 86% P 87%10.0Draw 9% P 9%21.0Away 5% P 4%

Double Chance

1.01Bayern Munich or Draw 48% P 48%1.05Bayern Munich or St Pauli 46% P 46%9.0Draw or St Pauli 5% P 6%

Draw No Bet

1.011 96%23.02 4%

Both Teams To Score

2.25Yes 41% P 42%1.57No 59% P 58%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.33Over 72% P 73%3.4Under 28% P 27%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46% P 41%1.72Under 54% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 85–87.5% · away 2.5–5% · 296 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home87%86%88%+1.6
Draw9%10%9%-0.8
Away4%4%3%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 72%

Both teams to score · yes 40–42.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes42%41%41%-0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 72.5–75% · 217 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.573%73%74%+0.3

Felix Zwayer

Career
349 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.57 (4.39 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
21.0 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.224.14+0.0152
Fouls / match21.822.3-0.57
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.32-0.2030
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-26 11 261 45'7
2025-11-07 20 210 61'7
2025-10-26 70 231 45'11
2025-10-22 31 213 17'10
2025-10-03 40 210 10'13
2025-09-21 100 270 8'8
2025-09-18 11 70 21'6
2025-09-13 51 140 21'13
2025-08-27 21 100 3'4
2025-08-23 90 321 37'18