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Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Momentum

SC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,200

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Bo Henriksen
Position
12 · 18
Formation
4-4-1-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Daniel Schlager

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
5.3° (feels 3.4°)
Wind
2.3
Humidity
96%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

DWWLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 6.48–7.51 · xPts 6.52

  • D A Viktoria Plzeň 0–0 xG 1.05–1.42 UEFA EL
  • L A FC Bayern München 2–6 xG 0.71–2.67 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 1.32–0.55 GER BI
  • W A Nice 3–1 xG 2.13–1.59 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Union Berlin 0–0 xG 1.27–1.27 GER BI

FSV Mainz 05

DWLDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.63–6.52 · xPts 5.95

  • L A Universitatea Craiova 0–1 xG 0.41–1.13 UEFA ECL
  • D H TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 xG 2.27–1.51 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 xG 0.11–1.11 GER BI
  • W H Fiorentina 2–1 xG 1.46–2.19 UEFA ECL
  • D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 1.38–0.58 GER BI

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 1010 draws12 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 36–45 · 2.53 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 46 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 13–6 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 23 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 8–3 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 4–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 2–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17FSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.181.35
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 310 / 10 / 146 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.501.941.291.35
Goals against / match1.681.291.561.65
Clean sheets18%12%12%12%
Failed to score26%6%29%24%
Both teams scored62%82%62%65%
Over 2.565%71%53%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.581.41
xG against / match1.521.311.651.89
xG difference-0.010.58-0.07-0.48
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.28-0.06
xPts / match1.361.711.391.18
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.220.17
Game state
Scored first44%59%47%53%
PPG when scoring first2.002.101.811.89
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.590.75
Came back from behind44%70%33%40%
Leads held68%69%53%54%
Minutes leading22%32%28%34%
Minutes level54%50%43%36%
Minutes trailing23%18%29%30%
First goal (min)38373737
First goal conceded (min)42454444
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%48%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%57%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.260.18
Late goals against0.380.290.590.65
Style
Possession48%51%44%42%
Shots12.314.212.110.5
On target4.25.14.24.2
Shot conversion12%14%11%13%
Shots inside box69%69%76%75%
Big chances created2.32.83.23.0
Corners4.14.55.13.9
xG from set plays42%41%39%40%
Goals from headers14%9%18%22%
Pressure index14.318.310.98.9
Dominant minutes51.058.144.037.8
Pass accuracy80%80%75%74%
Fouls9.48.911.010.1
Cards1.621.652.242.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
3-3-1-31 3%1.01.01.01.940.64

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 55% P 55%3.75Draw 25% P 26%4.75Away 20% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18SC Freiburg or Draw 40% P 40%1.25SC Freiburg or Mainz 38% P 37%2.1Draw or Mainz 22% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 56%2.05No 45% P 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 55%2.1Under 45% P 45%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 52%1.83Under 50% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 17.5–20% · 551 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%54%52%-1.7
Draw26%27%27%+0.4
Away19%19%20%+1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes56%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%54%+0.8

Daniel Schlager

Career
120 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.56 (4.36 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 71 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.38
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.87 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.380.32+0.5874
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-06 41 200 23'6
2025-11-02 72 260 10'15
2025-10-24 40 190 23'9
2025-10-05 · SC Freiburg 40 220 54'4
2025-10-02 51 210 2'10
2025-09-20 · FSV Mainz 05 31 230 16'13
2025-08-31 21 9
2025-08-28 91 320 20'9
2025-08-14 50 200 8'9
2025-08-07 10 200 73'14