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Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Momentum

B04FC Köln
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
14

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,210

Teams

Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand · Lukas Kwasniok
Position
6 · 9
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.3° (feels 6.7°)
Wind
1.4
Humidity
96%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 6.0–8.77 · xPts 5.31

  • D H Newcastle United 2–2 xG 1.55–2.35 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–2 xG 1.9–1.28 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 1–2 xG 1.1–0.86 GER BI
  • W A Manchester City 2–0 xG 0.69–2.06 UEFA CL
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 xG 0.77–2.22 GER BI

FC Köln

WLLDD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 10 · xG 9.52–7.06 · xPts 8.49

  • D H St. Pauli 1–1 xG 1.7–0.17 GER BI
  • D A Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 1.08–1.32 GER BI
  • L H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–4 xG 1.51–1.98 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 xG 2.44–2.54 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 4–1 xG 2.79–1.05 GER BI

All meetings · 30 matches since 2005

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 185 draws7 FC Köln

Goals 54–29 · 2.77 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 71 draws2 FC Köln

Goals 21–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 40 draws1 FC Köln

Goals 10–3 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Köln 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 0–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 17FC Köln all · 34FC Köln away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.741.820.940.76
W / D / L17 / 8 / 99 / 4 / 47 / 11 / 162 / 7 / 8
Goals for / match2.002.241.441.12
Goals against / match1.381.121.851.94
Clean sheets24%35%9%12%
Failed to score12%0%12%18%
Both teams scored65%65%79%71%
Over 2.559%53%65%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.421.491.39
xG against / match1.401.101.661.88
xG difference0.511.33-0.18-0.49
Finishing vs xG0.09-0.19-0.05-0.27
xPts / match1.652.101.271.10
Points vs xPts0.08-0.27-0.33-0.34
Game state
Scored first65%71%41%29%
PPG when scoring first2.232.171.571.60
PPG when conceding first0.831.000.500.42
Came back from behind40%43%38%43%
Leads held68%69%44%40%
Minutes leading40%42%19%11%
Minutes level39%42%51%55%
Minutes trailing20%16%30%34%
First goal (min)34384248
First goal conceded (min)39484442
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%50%61%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%47%56%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.560.47
Late goals against0.260.180.350.41
Style
Possession59%61%47%46%
Shots15.218.613.411.7
On target5.26.54.73.8
Shot conversion13%12%11%10%
Shots inside box64%66%70%71%
Big chances created3.74.32.52.1
Corners5.66.74.64.4
xG from set plays27%28%27%29%
Goals from headers19%24%16%16%
Pressure index16.120.511.08.6
Dominant minutes57.164.842.835.8
Pass accuracy88%88%80%80%
Fouls8.68.68.38.1
Cards2.182.122.001.94

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.492
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 54% P 53%4.1Draw 23% P 23%4.1Away 23% P 24%

Double Chance

1.18Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 40% P 38%1.2Bayer Leverkusen or Cologne 39% P 39%2.25Draw or Cologne 21% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61% P 65%2.37No 39% P 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 65%2.62Under 36% P 35%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

4.51.8Over 51%1.9Under 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 22.5–25% · 134 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%53%58%+4.7
Draw23%23%22%-1.6
Away24%23%20%-3.1

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes65%64%64%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%64%63%-0.4

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.154.14-0.1448
Fouls / match21.422.3-0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.32+0.1452
Time added6.76.8-0.2233
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-30 50 161 56'6
2025-11-27 50 240 33'6
2025-11-09 50 231 17'12
2025-10-26 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 31 170 15'9
2025-10-23 60 270 13'7
2025-10-02 50 191 7'10
2025-09-14 50 221 36'9
2025-08-23 40 180 12'8
2025-08-07 40 250 10'6
2025-05-17 41 181 9'5