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Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Momentum

HeidenheimFCB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion, Heidenheim an der Brenz
Capacity
15,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
15,000

Teams

Coaches
Frank Schmidt · Vincent Kompany
Position
17 · 1
Formation
5-3-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Florian Badstübner

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
0.2° (feels -3.0°)
Wind
2.7
Humidity
92%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Heidenheim

LLWWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 13 · xG 5.6–8.96 · xPts 5.57

  • L A St. Pauli 1–2 xG 2.36–0.95 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 2–1 xG 1.79–1.18 GER BI
  • W A FC Union Berlin 2–1 xG 0.83–1.08 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 xG 0.52–2.28 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–6 xG 0.09–3.46 GER BI

FC Bayern München

LWWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 7 · xG 12.76–5.25 · xPts 10.76

  • D H FSV Mainz 05 2–2 xG 3.86–0.54 GER BI
  • W H Sporting CP 3–1 xG 2.21–0.33 UEFA CL
  • W A VfB Stuttgart 5–0 xG 3.81–1.31 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 3–1 xG 2.19–0.58 GER BI
  • L A Arsenal 1–3 xG 0.7–2.49 UEFA CL

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Heidenheim 11 draws4 FC Bayern München

Goals 10–21 · 5.17 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Heidenheim 11 draws4 FC Bayern München

Goals 10–21 · 5.17 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Heidenheim 11 draws3 FC Bayern München

Goals 8–17 · 5.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • D FC Bayern München 3–3 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Heidenheim 0–4 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Heidenheim 0–4 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 4–2 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 3–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 4–2 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHeidenheim all · 34Heidenheim at home · 17FC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.002.622.65
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 828 / 5 / 114 / 3 / 0
Goals for / match1.211.353.593.18
Goals against / match2.122.181.061.00
Clean sheets3%6%35%41%
Failed to score35%35%0%0%
Both teams scored62%59%65%59%
Over 2.568%71%94%88%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.462.702.47
xG against / match1.911.931.221.46
xG difference-0.55-0.471.481.01
Finishing vs xG-0.16-0.110.890.71
xPts / match1.101.152.151.95
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.150.470.70
Game state
Scored first24%29%65%53%
PPG when scoring first2.002.202.773.00
PPG when conceding first0.380.502.332.25
Came back from behind23%33%93%100%
Leads held46%57%90%93%
Minutes leading15%18%50%41%
Minutes level48%46%36%42%
Minutes trailing37%36%14%17%
First goal (min)45363240
First goal conceded (min)39383835
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%61%59%74%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%54%47%47%
Late goals for (76'+)0.320.411.031.24
Late goals against0.440.530.320.24
Style
Possession42%42%67%67%
Shots11.411.519.216.8
On target3.63.98.58.1
Shot conversion11%12%19%19%
Shots inside box69%66%68%70%
Big chances created2.52.74.94.2
Corners4.54.66.45.1
xG from set plays33%38%23%22%
Goals from headers15%13%11%13%
Pressure index7.77.427.525.0
Dominant minutes35.337.574.268.6
Pass accuracy76%76%90%89%
Fouls9.89.48.89.1
Cards1.441.181.792.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

FC Bayern München · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.85) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.24

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.854
Early press (0-15, level)+1.044

Game state

When ahead+0.823
When level+0.874
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.243

Situations

At home+0.622
Away+1.042
4+ days rest+0.753

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.622
As favourite+0.854

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.434
Conceded when ahead-0.473
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.05

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

13.0Home 7% P 6%9.5Draw 10% P 11%1.14Away 83% P 83%

Double Chance

5.5Heidenheim or Draw 9% P 9%1.07Heidenheim or Bayern Munich 45% P 45%1.04Draw or Bayern Munich 46% P 47%

Draw No Bet

11.01 9%1.052 91%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 51%1.95No 48% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.28Over 75%3.75Under 25%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.52.2Over 42% P 36%1.61Under 58% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 5–10% · away 80–85% · 149 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home6%6%8%+1.9
Draw11%12%9%-2.5
Away83%82%83%+0.7

In those fixtures: 3.4 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Florian Badstübner

Career
85 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.53 (3.39 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.14-1.147
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.34
Fouls per card6.15.4+1.06 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.32-0.1933
Time added6.06.8-0.9611
First card
39' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-11 50 180 10'5
2025-12-07 20 160 65'7
2025-11-22 11 12
2025-11-01 40 300 45'6
2025-10-18 20 200 6'8
2025-10-02 40 370 25'7
2025-08-22 · FC Bayern München 50 260 34'11
2025-07-17 51 310 59'5
2025-05-10 · Heidenheim 20 210 25'4
2025-04-20 30 140 71'4