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Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05St. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,000

Teams

Coaches
Urs Fischer · Alexander Blessin
Position
18 · 16
Formation
5-3-2 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.4° (feels 5.1°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
89%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FSV Mainz 05

LLDDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 5.01–13.38 · xPts 3.64

  • W H Samsunspor 2–0 xG 2.0–0.77 UEFA ECL
  • D A FC Bayern München 2–2 xG 0.54–3.86 GER BI
  • D A Lech Poznań 1–1 xG 1.73–2.8 UEFA ECL
  • L H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 xG 0.63–2.23 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 0–4 xG 0.09–3.72 GER BI

St. Pauli

LLLDW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 2.98–8.0 · xPts 3.64

  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–1 xG 0.95–2.36 GER BI
  • D A FC Köln 1–1 xG 0.17–1.7 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–3 xG 0.58–2.19 GER BI
  • L H FC Union Berlin 0–1 xG 0.73–0.44 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 1–2 xG 0.55–1.32 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

FSV Mainz 05 51 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 13–4 · 2.83 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 6 matches

FSV Mainz 05 51 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 13–4 · 2.83 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05 41 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 9–2 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 0–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–3 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 2–4 FSV Mainz 05 neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.181.000.760.53
W / D / L10 / 10 / 144 / 5 / 86 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.291.240.850.71
Goals against / match1.561.471.761.71
Clean sheets12%12%15%18%
Failed to score29%35%38%41%
Both teams scored62%59%56%47%
Over 2.553%41%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.581.740.990.85
xG against / match1.651.401.671.70
xG difference-0.070.34-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.50-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.391.600.970.83
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.60-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first47%41%29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.811.711.701.40
PPG when conceding first0.590.440.290.09
Came back from behind33%27%17%8%
Leads held53%50%54%40%
Minutes leading28%23%13%12%
Minutes level43%49%50%47%
Minutes trailing29%28%37%40%
First goal (min)37365047
First goal conceded (min)44454034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%52%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%60%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.350.210.12
Late goals against0.590.530.380.35
Style
Possession44%46%44%44%
Shots12.113.610.39.9
On target4.24.23.42.5
Shot conversion11%9%8%7%
Shots inside box76%77%59%57%
Big chances created3.23.41.71.5
Corners5.16.24.73.6
xG from set plays39%38%34%19%
Goals from headers18%14%24%25%
Pressure index10.912.98.46.2
Dominant minutes44.050.338.232.0
Pass accuracy75%76%77%77%
Fouls11.011.89.69.7
Cards2.241.941.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 48%3.3Draw 29% P 29%4.0Away 24% P 24%

Double Chance

1.22Mainz or Draw 39% P 38%1.33Mainz or St Pauli 35% P 36%1.8Draw or St Pauli 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 48%1.8No 52% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 44%1.61Under 58% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 809 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-1.9
Draw29%28%29%+1.6
Away24%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Career
72 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.15 (4.01 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.15-0.4437
Fouls / match22.122.3-0.26
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.10 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.33+0.8585
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
37' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-09 · FSV Mainz 05 50 220 45'6
2025-10-25 20 270 57'10
2025-09-28 40 241 67'10
2025-09-14 10 211 38'7
2025-08-23 · St. Pauli 51 252 22'13
2025-07-15 61 311 15'9
2025-05-09 20 210 43'7
2025-04-26 31 230 48'7
2025-04-04 41 160 32'7
2025-03-15 60 240 10'7