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Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Momentum

VFBTSG
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
59,000

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Christian Ilzer
Position
6 · 5
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-2-2

Referee

Daniel Siebert

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
9.3° (feels 9.3°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
84%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

WLLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 13 GA 8 · xG 9.5–7.02 · xPts 8.95

  • W A Werder Bremen 4–0 xG 2.17–0.96 GER BI
  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–1 xG 2.51–0.76 UEFA EL
  • L H FC Bayern München 0–5 xG 1.31–3.81 GER BI
  • L A Hamburger SV 1–2 xG 1.29–1.18 GER BI
  • W A Go Ahead Eagles 4–0 xG 2.22–0.31 UEFA EL

TSG Hoffenheim

WDWLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 5 · xG 8.16–7.46 · xPts 7.48

  • W H Hamburger SV 4–1 xG 1.48–1.39 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 1.49–0.94 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 3–0 xG 1.86–0.87 GER BI
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 1.51–2.27 GER BI
  • W H RB Leipzig 3–1 xG 1.82–2.0 GER BI

All meetings · 33 matches since 2008

VfB Stuttgart 1113 draws9 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 56–49 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 16 draws3 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 15–15 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 04 draws1 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 0–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17TSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.291.791.71
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 218 / 7 / 98 / 5 / 4
Goals for / match2.091.761.911.76
Goals against / match1.440.941.531.82
Clean sheets32%47%21%18%
Failed to score9%18%18%24%
Both teams scored62%41%65%65%
Over 2.574%47%71%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.711.56
xG against / match1.541.201.461.70
xG difference0.260.800.25-0.14
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.230.200.20
xPts / match1.581.861.581.38
Points vs xPts0.240.430.210.33
Game state
Scored first53%53%47%35%
PPG when scoring first2.332.782.752.67
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.941.20
Came back from behind56%71%47%60%
Leads held75%92%86%80%
Minutes leading32%30%37%28%
Minutes level47%58%40%46%
Minutes trailing21%11%22%26%
First goal (min)40433433
First goal conceded (min)38373727
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%45%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%50%42%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.290.18
Late goals against0.500.470.350.35
Style
Possession58%58%55%54%
Shots15.216.614.112.0
On target6.16.25.24.4
Shot conversion14%11%14%15%
Shots inside box66%65%69%70%
Big chances created3.33.72.82.5
Corners5.75.95.85.2
xG from set plays24%22%35%33%
Goals from headers9%10%22%23%
Pressure index19.217.514.512.4
Dominant minutes61.563.456.950.5
Pass accuracy84%84%80%79%
Fouls9.69.313.914.5
Cards1.911.942.262.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-1-4-12 6%2.01.50.51.361.13

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 49% P 49%3.9Draw 24% P 25%3.6Away 27% P 27%

Double Chance

1.33VfB Stuttgart or Draw 35% P 37%1.25VfB Stuttgart or TSG Hoffenheim 37% P 38%1.7Draw or TSG Hoffenheim 27% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65% P 65%2.62No 35% P 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 63%2.5Under 38% P 37%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 25–27.5% · 375 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%48%47%-1.0
Draw25%26%27%+1.9
Away27%26%25%-0.9

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes65%64%64%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Daniel Siebert

Career
74 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.8 (4.61 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 46 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.264.14+0.1059
Fouls / match22.322.3-0.14
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.36 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.32-0.5326
Time added7.76.8+0.8285
First card
30' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.15

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-10 40 250 27'4
2025-12-06 30 261 53'9
2025-11-04 50 290 24'6
2025-10-25 40 190 24'10
2025-10-21 51 200 27'7
2025-10-04 30 220 14'7
2025-09-30 91 270 34'8
2025-09-21 10 190 5'8
2025-09-13 · VfB Stuttgart 11 211 90'11
2025-08-23 · TSG Hoffenheim 40 260 37'14