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Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Momentum

WOBSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,045

Teams

Coaches
Daniel Bauer · Julian Schuster
Position
13 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.8° (feels 5.9°)
Wind
2.9
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 416

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 6.87–7.59 · xPts 6.45

  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 xG 1.64–1.12 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 0.88–2.18 GER BI
  • D A Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 xG 1.46–1.88 GER BI
  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–3 xG 2.22–0.77 GER BI
  • L A Werder Bremen 1–2 xG 0.66–1.64 GER BI

SC Freiburg

DWLWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 10.55–4.88 · xPts 9.55

  • D H Borussia Dortmund 1–1 xG 1.82–1.04 GER BI
  • W H Salzburg 1–0 xG 2.77–0.53 UEFA EL
  • L A FC Heidenheim 1–2 xG 1.18–1.79 GER BI
  • W H FSV Mainz 05 4–0 xG 3.72–0.09 GER BI
  • D A Viktoria Plzeň 0–0 xG 1.05–1.42 UEFA EL

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

VfL Wolfsburg 126 draws14 SC Freiburg

Goals 57–48 · 3.28 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 66%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 21 draws7 SC Freiburg

Goals 16–18 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 11 draws3 SC Freiburg

Goals 8–10 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 3–4 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 6–0 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.591.380.88
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 1113 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.321.241.501.06
Goals against / match2.031.881.682.06
Clean sheets6%6%18%24%
Failed to score24%29%26%47%
Both teams scored74%71%62%41%
Over 2.565%65%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.581.511.14
xG against / match1.891.691.521.74
xG difference-0.50-0.11-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.35-0.01-0.08
xPts / match1.141.341.361.01
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.750.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first53%35%44%29%
PPG when scoring first1.441.172.001.80
PPG when conceding first0.130.200.880.40
Came back from behind10%15%44%23%
Leads held35%25%68%67%
Minutes leading27%18%22%12%
Minutes level43%48%54%59%
Minutes trailing30%34%23%29%
First goal (min)35383840
First goal conceded (min)43384238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.240.350.24
Late goals against0.560.470.380.47
Style
Possession45%48%48%45%
Shots11.913.612.310.3
On target4.24.74.23.3
Shot conversion11%9%12%10%
Shots inside box64%66%69%68%
Big chances created2.63.02.31.7
Corners4.45.44.13.7
xG from set plays32%32%42%43%
Goals from headers25%33%14%24%
Pressure index9.112.714.310.3
Dominant minutes38.146.351.043.8
Pass accuracy78%80%80%80%
Fouls11.512.19.49.8
Cards2.152.291.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 39%3.5Draw 27% P 28%2.9Away 33% P 33%

Double Chance

1.44Wolfsburg or Draw 32% P 34%1.28Wolfsburg or SC Freiburg 36% P 36%1.5Draw or SC Freiburg 31% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 57%2.05No 45% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%+0.5
Draw28%28%28%-0.0
Away33%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.14-0.5626
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.32-1.2215
Time added6.86.8-0.1241
First card
36' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-07 80 210 32'8
2025-11-27 30 211 11'6
2025-11-21 51 260 24'11
2025-10-25 31 151 19'16
2025-10-04 40 270 6'9
2025-09-24 50 320 2'5
2025-09-19 20 281 40'7
2025-08-24 30 200 34'8
2025-08-21 50 370 12'8
2025-08-14 10 191 14'8