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Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Momentum

B04VFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,210

Teams

Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
3 · 6
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Felix Zwayer

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
-1.3° (feels -5.0°)
Wind
3.0
Humidity
85%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 8.26–6.98 · xPts 7.99

  • W A RB Leipzig 3–1 xG 2.07–2.29 GER BI
  • W H FC Köln 2–0 xG 1.65–0.19 GER BI
  • D H Newcastle United 2–2 xG 1.55–2.35 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–2 xG 1.9–1.28 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 1–2 xG 1.1–0.86 GER BI

VfB Stuttgart

LLWWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 8.52–6.9 · xPts 8.59

  • D H TSG Hoffenheim 0–0 xG 1.25–0.19 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 4–0 xG 2.17–0.96 GER BI
  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–1 xG 2.51–0.76 UEFA EL
  • L H FC Bayern München 0–5 xG 1.31–3.81 GER BI
  • L A Hamburger SV 1–2 xG 1.29–1.18 GER BI

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 229 draws7 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 79–48 · 3.34 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 44 draws2 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 19–17 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 draws2 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 8–12 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–4 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 17VfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.741.821.821.35
W / D / L17 / 8 / 99 / 4 / 418 / 8 / 86 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match2.002.242.092.41
Goals against / match1.381.121.441.94
Clean sheets24%35%32%18%
Failed to score12%0%9%0%
Both teams scored65%65%62%82%
Over 2.559%53%74%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.421.801.61
xG against / match1.401.101.541.89
xG difference0.511.330.26-0.28
Finishing vs xG0.09-0.190.280.80
xPts / match1.652.101.581.30
Points vs xPts0.08-0.270.240.05
Game state
Scored first65%71%53%53%
PPG when scoring first2.232.172.331.89
PPG when conceding first0.831.001.270.75
Came back from behind40%43%56%46%
Leads held68%69%75%54%
Minutes leading40%42%32%34%
Minutes level39%42%47%36%
Minutes trailing20%16%21%30%
First goal (min)34384038
First goal conceded (min)39483838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%50%54%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%47%53%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.650.76
Late goals against0.260.180.500.53
Style
Possession59%61%58%57%
Shots15.218.615.213.8
On target5.26.56.16.0
Shot conversion13%12%14%18%
Shots inside box64%66%66%66%
Big chances created3.74.33.32.9
Corners5.66.75.75.5
xG from set plays27%28%24%26%
Goals from headers19%24%9%8%
Pressure index16.120.519.220.8
Dominant minutes57.164.861.559.6
Pass accuracy88%88%84%84%
Fouls8.68.69.69.9
Cards2.182.121.911.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 44%3.7Draw 26% P 26%3.0Away 32% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 35% P 35%1.25Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart 38% P 37%1.7Draw or VfB Stuttgart 28% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61% P 62%2.37No 39% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 59%2.3Under 41% P 41%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 52%1.83Under 50% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 30–32.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%43%45%+1.8
Draw26%26%25%-0.8
Away30%31%30%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 66%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Felix Zwayer

Career
349 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.57 (4.39 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
21.0 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.224.14+0.0152
Fouls / match21.822.3-0.57
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.32-0.2030
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-14 51 210 11'8
2025-12-09 50 251 13'13
2025-11-29 20 130 39'8
2025-11-26 11 261 45'7
2025-11-07 20 210 61'7
2025-10-26 · VfB Stuttgart 70 231 45'11
2025-10-22 31 213 17'10
2025-10-03 40 210 10'13
2025-09-21 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 100 270 8'8
2025-09-18 11 70 21'6