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Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Momentum

SC FreiburgHamburger SV
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
34,700

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Merlin Polzin
Position
9 · 13
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Timo Gerach

Weather

Conditions
snow
Temperature
1.4° (feels -2.5°)
Wind
4.0
Humidity
90%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 6 · xG 13.27–4.53 · xPts 11.07

  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 xG 3.77–1.08 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 1–1 xG 1.82–1.04 GER BI
  • W H Salzburg 1–0 xG 2.77–0.53 UEFA EL
  • L A FC Heidenheim 1–2 xG 1.18–1.79 GER BI
  • W H FSV Mainz 05 4–0 xG 3.72–0.09 GER BI

Hamburger SV

LWWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 6.32–6.77 · xPts 6.56

  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 xG 0.96–1.67 GER BI
  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 1–4 xG 1.39–1.48 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 3–2 xG 1.47–1.03 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 2–1 xG 1.18–1.29 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–1 xG 1.33–1.31 GER BI

All meetings · 18 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 67 draws5 Hamburger SV

Goals 18–18 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 25 draws3 Hamburger SV

Goals 9–12 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 12 draws2 Hamburger SV

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Hamburger SV 3–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Hamburger SV 1–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 2–2 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 1–1 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 Hamburger SV neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 1–1 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 0–3 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17Hamburger SV all · 34Hamburger SV away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.120.82
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 39 / 11 / 143 / 5 / 9
Goals for / match1.501.941.180.88
Goals against / match1.681.291.591.88
Clean sheets18%12%18%24%
Failed to score26%6%29%35%
Both teams scored62%82%65%59%
Over 2.565%71%56%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.311.12
xG against / match1.521.311.812.08
xG difference-0.010.58-0.50-0.96
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.14-0.24
xPts / match1.361.711.140.91
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.02-0.09
Game state
Scored first44%59%35%24%
PPG when scoring first2.002.101.581.00
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.830.70
Came back from behind44%70%36%25%
Leads held68%69%56%50%
Minutes leading22%32%16%12%
Minutes level54%50%58%58%
Minutes trailing23%18%26%29%
First goal (min)38374350
First goal conceded (min)42454041
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%58%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%54%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.180.12
Late goals against0.380.290.380.53
Style
Possession48%51%45%45%
Shots12.314.212.311.3
On target4.25.14.64.4
Shot conversion12%14%10%8%
Shots inside box69%69%66%60%
Big chances created2.32.81.91.3
Corners4.14.53.73.6
xG from set plays42%41%29%31%
Goals from headers14%9%8%7%
Pressure index14.318.39.17.8
Dominant minutes51.058.138.335.2
Pass accuracy80%80%80%80%
Fouls9.48.911.811.6
Cards1.621.652.682.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Hamburger SV

0–15'34
16–30'411
31–45'1010
46–60'910
61–75'86
76–90'613

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.25 · Behind vs level +2.14

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253
When behind-0.213
10 min after conceding-0.443

Situations

Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.153

Behind vs level +0.04

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-317 50%1.291.291.351.321.54
3-4-2-110 29%1.31.31.41.462.13
3-4-1-23 9%0.00.673.00.972.31
3-5-1-11 3%1.02.02.02.562.41
4-2-3-11 3%1.00.00.00.370.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.8Home 53% P 54%3.5Draw 27% P 26%4.75Away 20% P 20%

Double Chance

1.18SC Freiburg or Draw 40% P 40%1.28SC Freiburg or Hamburg 36% P 37%1.95Draw or Hamburg 24% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 46%1.72Under 54% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 665 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home54%54%56%+2.6
Draw26%25%27%+1.4
Away20%21%17%-4.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Timo Gerach

Career
30 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.43 (4.13 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
20.9 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.5
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 29 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.15+0.6674
Fouls / match20.922.3-1.38
Fouls per card4.85.4-1.03 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.480.33+1.7296
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
36' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 26% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-28 30 180 45'8
2025-10-18 40 261 7'8
2025-09-20 · SC Freiburg 70 202 35'10
2025-08-30 50 240 45'9
2025-05-11 21 160 12'9
2025-04-13 20 130 30'2
2025-03-15 31 172 6'9
2025-02-22 50 230 7'6
2025-01-15 20 181 61'7