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Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Momentum

SVWTSG
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen
Capacity
42,100
Surface
grass
Attendance
39,500

Teams

Coaches
Horst Steffen · Christian Ilzer
Position
15 · 3
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Frank Willenborg

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
-1.1° (feels -7.3°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
86%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Werder Bremen

LDLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 3 GA 11 · xG 4.6–7.73 · xPts 4.83

  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 xG 1.04–1.71 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 xG 1.56–0.84 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–3 xG 0.38–1.94 GER BI
  • D A FC Augsburg 0–0 xG 0.65–1.07 GER BI
  • L H VfB Stuttgart 0–4 xG 0.96–2.17 GER BI

TSG Hoffenheim

WDWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 13 GA 3 · xG 7.54–5.11 · xPts 7.97

  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 xG 1.33–0.79 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 xG 1.38–0.94 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 5–1 xG 3.17–0.76 GER BI
  • D A VfB Stuttgart 0–0 xG 0.19–1.25 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 4–1 xG 1.48–1.39 GER BI

All meetings · 34 matches since 2008

Werder Bremen 1210 draws12 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 55–60 · 3.38 per match · BTTS 74% · over 2.5 59%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Werder Bremen 21 draws7 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 12–22 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Werder Bremen 10 draws4 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 6–11 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 0–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 1–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 3–4 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 4–0 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricWerder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen at home · 17TSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.941.121.791.71
W / D / L8 / 8 / 185 / 4 / 818 / 7 / 98 / 5 / 4
Goals for / match1.091.121.911.76
Goals against / match1.761.821.531.82
Clean sheets18%18%21%18%
Failed to score38%35%18%24%
Both teams scored47%47%65%65%
Over 2.553%53%71%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.211.421.711.56
xG against / match1.581.351.461.70
xG difference-0.370.070.25-0.14
Finishing vs xG-0.12-0.300.200.20
xPts / match1.211.471.581.38
Points vs xPts-0.27-0.350.210.33
Game state
Scored first29%29%47%35%
PPG when scoring first2.102.602.752.67
PPG when conceding first0.430.500.941.20
Came back from behind25%33%47%60%
Leads held62%71%86%80%
Minutes leading16%17%37%28%
Minutes level41%38%40%46%
Minutes trailing43%46%22%26%
First goal (min)52543433
First goal conceded (min)35333727
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half70%74%45%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%52%50%42%
Late goals for (76'+)0.410.590.290.18
Late goals against0.320.290.350.35
Style
Possession51%54%55%54%
Shots13.115.414.112.0
On target4.14.75.24.4
Shot conversion8%7%14%15%
Shots inside box62%63%69%70%
Big chances created1.71.92.82.5
Corners4.64.95.85.2
xG from set plays24%23%35%33%
Goals from headers19%32%22%23%
Pressure index12.617.014.512.4
Dominant minutes47.860.456.950.5
Pass accuracy82%82%80%79%
Fouls9.910.313.914.5
Cards2.472.592.262.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.472
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-1-4-12 6%2.01.50.51.361.13

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.7Home 25% P 25%3.7Draw 25% P 25%1.9Away 49% P 50%

Double Chance

1.8Werder Bremen or Draw 26% P 25%1.28Werder Bremen or TSG Hoffenheim 37% P 38%1.28Draw or TSG Hoffenheim 37% P 37%

Draw No Bet

2.621 35%1.442 65%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 61%2.25No 41% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 59%2.3Under 41% P 41%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 47.5–50% · 285 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home25%26%24%-2.2
Draw25%25%27%+1.9
Away50%49%49%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 56%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Frank Willenborg

Career
111 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.28 (4.1 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
23.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.35
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 54 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.984.15+1.6793
Fouls / match22.622.3+0.12
Fouls per card4.65.4-1.30 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.33+0.8689
Time added6.36.8-0.6526
First card
34' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.25

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-14 30 191 53'8
2025-12-13 50 240 41'12
2025-11-22 20 251 42'7
2025-11-02 · TSG Hoffenheim 20 270 5'8
2025-09-26 · Werder Bremen 20 131 16'6
2025-08-30 70 200 17'6
2025-05-03 · TSG Hoffenheim 14 6
2025-04-19 40 190 35'3
2025-04-05 70 200 33'3
2025-03-09 30 181 58'6