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Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Momentum

RB LeipzigSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
17

Venue

Stadium
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Capacity
47,069
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,902

Teams

Coaches
Ole Werner · Julian Schuster
Position
4 · 8
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robert Hartmann

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
3.0° (feels -1.7°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
81%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

RB Leipzig

WDWLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 6 · xG 9.51–5.75 · xPts 8.99

  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–3 xG 2.29–2.07 GER BI
  • L A FC Union Berlin 1–3 xG 0.54–1.17 GER BI
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 6–0 xG 3.09–0.99 GER BI
  • D A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 xG 1.27–0.48 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 2.32–1.03 GER BI

SC Freiburg

LWDWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 12.04–5.02 · xPts 10.66

  • W H Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 2.49–0.58 GER BI
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 xG 3.77–1.08 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 1–1 xG 1.82–1.04 GER BI
  • W H Salzburg 1–0 xG 2.77–0.53 UEFA EL
  • L A FC Heidenheim 1–2 xG 1.18–1.79 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2016

RB Leipzig 124 draws4 SC Freiburg

Goals 42–21 · 3.15 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

RB Leipzig 63 draws1 SC Freiburg

Goals 19–10 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

RB Leipzig 31 draws1 SC Freiburg

Goals 10–6 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 2–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–4 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 0–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D RB Leipzig 1–1 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
MetricRB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.912.241.380.88
W / D / L20 / 5 / 912 / 2 / 313 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.942.351.501.06
Goals against / match1.381.181.682.06
Clean sheets32%35%18%24%
Failed to score9%0%26%47%
Both teams scored62%65%62%41%
Over 2.571%76%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.072.441.511.14
xG against / match1.421.431.521.74
xG difference0.651.01-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG-0.13-0.09-0.01-0.08
xPts / match1.761.961.361.01
Points vs xPts0.160.270.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first74%88%44%29%
PPG when scoring first2.282.272.001.80
PPG when conceding first0.872.000.880.40
Came back from behind25%40%44%23%
Leads held74%75%68%67%
Minutes leading37%42%22%12%
Minutes level47%47%54%59%
Minutes trailing16%11%23%29%
First goal (min)38413840
First goal conceded (min)48524238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%52%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%75%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.470.350.24
Late goals against0.440.470.380.47
Style
Possession54%56%48%45%
Shots15.817.312.310.3
On target6.07.34.23.3
Shot conversion12%14%12%10%
Shots inside box72%77%69%68%
Big chances created3.64.72.31.7
Corners5.35.94.13.7
xG from set plays22%24%42%43%
Goals from headers14%18%14%24%
Pressure index16.120.114.310.3
Dominant minutes54.561.851.043.8
Pass accuracy84%85%80%80%
Fouls9.38.19.49.8
Cards1.531.351.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 54% P 57%3.9Draw 24% P 24%4.33Away 22% P 19%

Double Chance

1.2RB Leipzig or Draw 39% P 41%1.25RB Leipzig or SC Freiburg 38% P 38%2.0Draw or SC Freiburg 23% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 58%2.1No 44% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 58%2.2Under 43% P 42%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home57%56%53%-2.8
Draw24%25%26%+1.0
Away19%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Robert Hartmann

Career
180 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.63 (3.49 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 60 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.974.14-0.5430
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.41
Fouls per card5.95.4+0.64 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.32+0.4367
Time added7.06.8+0.0956
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-14 21 170 11'10
2025-11-22 30 190 34'7
2025-11-01 40 190 18'8
2025-10-05 50 270 17'10
2025-09-20 30 262 9'14
2025-08-23 80 340 26'14
2025-04-26 30 240 37'12
2025-04-05 · RB Leipzig 31 220 4'6
2025-03-08 10 241 46'7
2025-02-16 20 261 62'9