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Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Momentum

BVBSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Capacity
81,365
Surface
grass
Attendance
81,365

Teams

Coaches
Niko Kovač · Alexander Blessin
Position
2 · 17
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
9.1° (feels 8.6°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
76%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Borussia Dortmund

DDWDW 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 11 GA 6 · xG 8.93–5.07 · xPts 9.43

  • W H Werder Bremen 3–0 xG 1.94–0.38 GER BI
  • D A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 xG 2.17–1.59 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 xG 1.23–0.44 GER BI
  • D A SC Freiburg 1–1 xG 1.04–1.82 GER BI
  • D H Bodø / Glimt 2–2 xG 2.54–0.85 UEFA CL

St. Pauli

LDWDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 3.82–9.74 · xPts 3.08

  • L A VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 xG 1.84–1.91 GER BI
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 0–0 xG 0.28–1.58 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–1 xG 0.95–2.36 GER BI
  • D A FC Köln 1–1 xG 0.17–1.7 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–3 xG 0.58–2.19 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

Borussia Dortmund 51 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 15–7 · 3.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Borussia Dortmund 51 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 15–7 · 3.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund 41 draws0 St. Pauli

Goals 12–6 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Borussia Dortmund 3–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D St. Pauli 3–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–0 St. Pauli neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 1–3 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBorussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.152.410.760.53
W / D / L22 / 7 / 513 / 2 / 26 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match2.062.350.850.71
Goals against / match1.000.941.761.71
Clean sheets44%53%15%18%
Failed to score6%6%38%41%
Both teams scored50%41%56%47%
Over 2.556%59%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.250.990.85
xG against / match1.251.081.671.70
xG difference0.581.18-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG0.230.10-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.692.010.970.83
Points vs xPts0.460.40-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first76%76%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.502.621.701.40
PPG when conceding first1.001.750.290.09
Came back from behind54%67%17%8%
Leads held79%87%54%40%
Minutes leading42%48%13%12%
Minutes level46%40%50%47%
Minutes trailing12%13%37%40%
First goal (min)39345047
First goal conceded (min)48354034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%50%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%62%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.590.650.210.12
Late goals against0.350.180.380.35
Style
Possession53%56%44%44%
Shots13.114.810.39.9
On target4.85.43.42.5
Shot conversion16%16%8%7%
Shots inside box74%72%59%57%
Big chances created3.23.91.71.5
Corners5.37.24.73.6
xG from set plays36%38%34%19%
Goals from headers23%20%24%25%
Pressure index16.821.58.46.2
Dominant minutes55.464.538.232.0
Pass accuracy83%85%77%77%
Fouls11.611.59.69.7
Cards1.911.591.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.33Home 71% P 73%4.75Draw 20% P 18%10.0Away 9% P 9%

Double Chance

1.06Borussia Dortmund or Draw 45% P 45%1.18Borussia Dortmund or St Pauli 40% P 41%3.25Draw or St Pauli 15% P 14%

Draw No Bet

1.071 89%9.02 11%

Both Teams To Score

2.37Yes 39% P 41%1.53No 61% P 59%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
3.52.2Over 42% P 39%1.61Under 58% P 61%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 72.5–75% · away 7.5–10% · 458 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home73%74%74%+0.5
Draw18%17%18%+0.9
Away9%9%8%-1.5

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 60%

Both teams to score · yes 40–42.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes41%41%41%-0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.154.15-0.1548
Fouls / match21.422.3-0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.33+0.1352
Time added6.76.8-0.2333
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-11 10 251 54'6
2025-12-13 30 140 5'5
2025-11-30 50 161 56'6
2025-11-27 50 240 33'6
2025-11-09 50 231 17'12
2025-10-26 31 170 15'9
2025-10-23 60 270 13'7
2025-10-02 50 191 7'10
2025-09-14 · St. Pauli 50 221 36'9
2025-08-23 40 180 12'8