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Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Momentum

FC AugsburgSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
WWK Arena, Augsburg
Capacity
30,660
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,160

Teams

Coaches
Manuel Baum · Julian Schuster
Position
15 · 8
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Martin Petersen

Weather

Conditions
mist
Temperature
-1.0° (feels -4.2°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
97%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Augsburg

WLDLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 5.62–8.65 · xPts 5.21

  • D H FC Union Berlin 1–1 xG 0.74–1.75 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 xG 1.53–3.21 GER BI
  • D H Werder Bremen 0–0 xG 1.07–0.65 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 xG 0.99–1.13 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 xG 1.28–1.9 GER BI

SC Freiburg

WDWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 10.99–5.66 · xPts 9.81

  • L A RB Leipzig 0–2 xG 0.13–2.43 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 2.49–0.58 GER BI
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 xG 3.77–1.08 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 1–1 xG 1.82–1.04 GER BI
  • W H Salzburg 1–0 xG 2.77–0.53 UEFA EL

All meetings · 28 matches since 2011

FC Augsburg 69 draws13 SC Freiburg

Goals 34–51 · 3.04 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 54%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Augsburg 22 draws6 SC Freiburg

Goals 10–21 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Augsburg 22 draws1 SC Freiburg

Goals 8–7 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D FC Augsburg 2–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–3 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 2–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 0–4 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 1–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–0 FC Augsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.261.531.380.88
W / D / L12 / 7 / 157 / 5 / 513 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.321.471.501.06
Goals against / match1.791.651.682.06
Clean sheets15%29%18%24%
Failed to score26%18%26%47%
Both teams scored62%59%62%41%
Over 2.562%53%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.351.511.14
xG against / match1.841.521.521.74
xG difference-0.46-0.17-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG-0.060.12-0.01-0.08
xPts / match1.171.311.361.01
Points vs xPts0.100.220.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first50%59%44%29%
PPG when scoring first1.762.202.001.80
PPG when conceding first0.750.500.880.40
Came back from behind21%17%44%23%
Leads held57%64%68%67%
Minutes leading24%29%22%12%
Minutes level46%48%54%59%
Minutes trailing30%23%23%29%
First goal (min)42453840
First goal conceded (min)41454238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%60%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half49%46%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.290.350.24
Late goals against0.290.180.380.47
Style
Possession44%45%48%45%
Shots13.213.212.310.3
On target4.65.14.23.3
Shot conversion10%11%12%10%
Shots inside box64%66%69%68%
Big chances created2.22.52.31.7
Corners4.65.24.13.7
xG from set plays31%25%42%43%
Goals from headers16%12%14%24%
Pressure index9.512.114.310.3
Dominant minutes40.546.951.043.8
Pass accuracy78%79%80%80%
Fouls11.011.39.49.8
Cards2.472.651.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.103
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.25 · Behind vs level +2.14

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 36% P 36%3.25Draw 29% P 30%2.75Away 35% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4Augsburg or Draw 33% P 33%1.36Augsburg or SC Freiburg 34% P 35%1.44Draw or SC Freiburg 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 55%1.95No 48% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 47%1.72Under 55% P 53%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-1.6
Draw30%30%32%+2.1
Away34%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Martin Petersen

Career
91 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.05 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 53 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.554.15+0.7378
Fouls / match23.822.3+1.22
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.33-0.1137
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-13 40 261 29'7
2025-11-23 30 120 19'9
2025-10-25 60 261 24'12
2025-09-27 80 240 21'18
2025-05-04 10 200 72'12
2025-04-12 · FC Augsburg 31 230 30'2
2025-03-15 · FC Augsburg 30 160 30'6
2025-02-23 60 302 6'10
2025-01-31 112 271 10'12