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Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Momentum

TSGB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
26,957

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
5 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Daniel Schlager

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
1.6° (feels -2.8°)
Wind
4.8
Humidity
89%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 8.18–5.2 · xPts 8.32

  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 5–1 xG 3.17–0.76 GER BI
  • D A VfB Stuttgart 0–0 xG 0.19–1.25 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 4–1 xG 1.48–1.39 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 1.49–0.94 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 3–0 xG 1.86–0.87 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LDWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 9 · xG 9.34–8.66 · xPts 7.67

  • L H VfB Stuttgart 1–4 xG 2.17–2.54 GER BI
  • W A RB Leipzig 3–1 xG 2.07–2.29 GER BI
  • W H FC Köln 2–0 xG 1.65–0.19 GER BI
  • D H Newcastle United 2–2 xG 1.55–2.35 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–2 xG 1.9–1.28 GER BI

All meetings · 36 matches since 2008

TSG Hoffenheim 96 draws21 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 47–72 · 3.31 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 72%

Last 10 · 10 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 31 draws6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 16–22 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 90%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 20 draws3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 6–10 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.791.881.741.65
W / D / L18 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 517 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match1.912.062.001.76
Goals against / match1.531.241.381.65
Clean sheets21%24%24%12%
Failed to score18%12%12%24%
Both teams scored65%65%65%65%
Over 2.571%71%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.861.911.40
xG against / match1.461.211.401.71
xG difference0.250.650.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG0.200.200.090.36
xPts / match1.581.781.651.21
Points vs xPts0.210.100.080.44
Game state
Scored first47%59%65%59%
PPG when scoring first2.752.802.232.30
PPG when conceding first0.940.570.830.71
Came back from behind47%29%40%38%
Leads held86%91%68%67%
Minutes leading37%46%40%39%
Minutes level40%35%39%36%
Minutes trailing22%19%20%25%
First goal (min)34363429
First goal conceded (min)37473934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%40%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%62%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.410.350.24
Late goals against0.350.350.260.35
Style
Possession55%57%59%57%
Shots14.116.215.211.7
On target5.25.95.23.8
Shot conversion14%13%13%15%
Shots inside box69%68%64%61%
Big chances created2.83.13.73.1
Corners5.86.45.64.5
xG from set plays35%36%27%26%
Goals from headers22%21%19%14%
Pressure index14.516.616.111.6
Dominant minutes56.963.457.149.4
Pass accuracy80%82%88%87%
Fouls13.913.48.68.5
Cards2.261.822.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
3-5-1-12 6%3.03.01.51.641.43

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 41% P 40%3.8Draw 25% P 26%2.8Away 34% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 33% P 33%1.25TSG Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen 37% P 37%1.57Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 30% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65% P 67%2.62No 35% P 33%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 62%2.5Under 38% P 38%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 33%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 32.5–35% · 189 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%41%40%-0.7
Draw26%26%22%-4.0
Away34%33%38%+4.7

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes67%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.5

Daniel Schlager

Career
120 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.56 (4.36 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 71 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.38
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.87 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.380.32+0.5874
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-09 60 201 29'7
2025-12-12 40 150 37'5
2025-11-30 21 210 28'7
2025-11-06 41 200 23'6
2025-11-02 72 260 10'15
2025-10-24 40 190 23'9
2025-10-05 40 220 54'4
2025-10-02 51 210 2'10
2025-09-20 31 230 16'13
2025-08-31 21 9