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Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Momentum

WOBHeidenheim
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,361

Teams

Coaches
Daniel Bauer · Frank Schmidt
Position
11 · 18
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tobias Welz

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
3.4° (feels -0.4°)
Wind
4.4
Humidity
80%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 12 GA 15 · xG 6.43–11.24 · xPts 4.62

  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 1.91–1.84 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–8 xG 0.92–2.33 GER BI
  • L H SC Freiburg 3–4 xG 1.08–3.77 GER BI
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 xG 1.64–1.12 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 0.88–2.18 GER BI

Heidenheim

WLLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 7.93–9.62 · xPts 6.41

  • L A FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 1.02–1.27 GER BI
  • D H FC Köln 2–2 xG 1.76–2.65 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 0–4 xG 1.0–3.57 GER BI
  • L A St. Pauli 1–2 xG 2.36–0.95 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 2–1 xG 1.79–1.18 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 32 draws1 Heidenheim

Goals 10–5 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 6 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 32 draws1 Heidenheim

Goals 10–5 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 22 draws1 Heidenheim

Goals 8–5 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17Heidenheim all · 34Heidenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.590.760.53
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 116 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.321.241.211.06
Goals against / match2.031.882.122.06
Clean sheets6%6%3%0%
Failed to score24%29%35%35%
Both teams scored74%71%62%65%
Over 2.565%65%68%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.581.361.27
xG against / match1.891.691.911.89
xG difference-0.50-0.11-0.55-0.62
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.35-0.16-0.21
xPts / match1.141.341.101.04
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.75-0.33-0.51
Game state
Scored first53%35%24%18%
PPG when scoring first1.441.172.001.67
PPG when conceding first0.130.200.380.29
Came back from behind10%15%23%14%
Leads held35%25%46%33%
Minutes leading27%18%15%12%
Minutes level43%48%48%50%
Minutes trailing30%34%37%39%
First goal (min)35384553
First goal conceded (min)43383941
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%61%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%54%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.240.320.24
Late goals against0.560.470.440.35
Style
Possession45%48%42%43%
Shots11.913.611.411.3
On target4.24.73.63.3
Shot conversion11%9%11%9%
Shots inside box64%66%69%72%
Big chances created2.63.02.52.4
Corners4.45.44.54.4
xG from set plays32%32%33%27%
Goals from headers25%33%15%17%
Pressure index9.112.77.78.0
Dominant minutes38.146.335.333.2
Pass accuracy78%80%76%76%
Fouls11.512.19.810.3
Cards2.152.291.441.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 56% P 56%4.1Draw 23% P 24%4.5Away 21% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18Wolfsburg or Draw 40% P 40%1.22Wolfsburg or Heidenheim 39% P 38%2.2Draw or Heidenheim 21% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 59%2.2No 42% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 59%2.5Under 38% P 41%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home56%56%53%-2.8
Draw24%25%26%+1.0
Away19%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Tobias Welz

Career
167 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.96 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 49 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.614.15+0.8682
Fouls / match23.522.3+0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.40 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.33-0.5126
Time added7.06.8+0.0952
First card
26' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-20 70 300 45'10
2025-11-29 70 160 11'7
2025-10-18 40 250 18'10
2025-09-27 · Heidenheim 70 360 4'12
2025-09-13 11 252 57'12
2025-05-17 · Heidenheim 50 221 39'4
2025-04-25 · Heidenheim 40 300 21'9
2025-04-12 13 3
2025-03-08 80 220 18'9
2025-02-15 · VfL Wolfsburg 60 251 8'10