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Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Momentum

SC FreiburgFC Köln
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
19

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
34,700

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Lukas Kwasniok
Position
8 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Bastian Dankert

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
2.5° (feels 2.5°)
Wind
0.4
Humidity
94%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

WWLDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 10.76–5.45 · xPts 9.7

  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 2.85–0.2 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.51–1.17 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–2 xG 0.13–2.43 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 2.49–0.58 GER BI
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 xG 3.77–1.08 GER BI

FC Köln

LLDLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 6.1–7.38 · xPts 5.74

  • W H FSV Mainz 05 2–1 xG 2.03–0.83 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 1–3 xG 0.6–1.5 GER BI
  • D A FC Heidenheim 2–2 xG 2.65–1.76 GER BI
  • L H FC Union Berlin 0–1 xG 0.62–1.65 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 xG 0.19–1.65 GER BI

All meetings · 24 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 134 draws7 FC Köln

Goals 39–33 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 62 draws2 FC Köln

Goals 18–8 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 31 draws1 FC Köln

Goals 6–5 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 4–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 1–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 1–4 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 5–0 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17FC Köln all · 34FC Köln away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.880.940.76
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 37 / 11 / 162 / 7 / 8
Goals for / match1.501.941.441.12
Goals against / match1.681.291.851.94
Clean sheets18%12%9%12%
Failed to score26%6%12%18%
Both teams scored62%82%79%71%
Over 2.565%71%65%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.491.39
xG against / match1.521.311.661.88
xG difference-0.010.58-0.18-0.49
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.05-0.27
xPts / match1.361.711.271.10
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.33-0.34
Game state
Scored first44%59%41%29%
PPG when scoring first2.002.101.571.60
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.500.42
Came back from behind44%70%38%43%
Leads held68%69%44%40%
Minutes leading22%32%19%11%
Minutes level54%50%51%55%
Minutes trailing23%18%30%34%
First goal (min)38374248
First goal conceded (min)42454442
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%61%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%56%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.560.47
Late goals against0.380.290.350.41
Style
Possession48%51%47%46%
Shots12.314.213.411.7
On target4.25.14.73.8
Shot conversion12%14%11%10%
Shots inside box69%69%70%71%
Big chances created2.32.82.52.1
Corners4.14.54.64.4
xG from set plays42%41%27%29%
Goals from headers14%9%16%16%
Pressure index14.318.311.08.6
Dominant minutes51.058.142.835.8
Pass accuracy80%80%80%80%
Fouls9.48.98.38.1
Cards1.621.652.001.94

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.25 · Behind vs level +2.14

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.502
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 48%3.7Draw 26% P 26%3.5Away 27% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28SC Freiburg or Draw 37% P 37%1.25SC Freiburg or Cologne 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Cologne 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 60%2.2No 42% P 40%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 56%2.2Under 43% P 44%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 25–27.5% · 375 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%48%47%-1.0
Draw26%26%27%+1.9
Away26%26%25%-0.9

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes60%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Bastian Dankert

Career
206 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.13 (3.94 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 65 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.894.15-0.7222
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.46
Fouls per card6.25.4+1.24 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.33-1.657
Time added6.26.8-0.7615
First card
38' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-10 20 170 19'5
2025-11-29 · FC Köln 61 220 39'8
2025-11-08 10 120 36'5
2025-10-18 40 290 20'6
2025-09-28 · SC Freiburg 30 240 45'10
2025-09-13 · FC Köln 50 260 68'30
2025-05-10 40 190 2'7
2025-04-26 40 300 36'6
2025-04-12 30 230 84'4
2025-03-29 60 181 32'12