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Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Momentum

VFBSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
20

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
60,000

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Julian Schuster
Position
5 · 7
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Florian Badstübner

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
5.5° (feels 3.9°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
83%

Where to watch · 421

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

WDLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 10.96–6.57 · xPts 9.39

  • W H Young Boys 3–2 xG 3.26–1.69 UEFA EL
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 1.67–1.24 GER BI
  • L A Roma 0–2 xG 1.44–1.05 UEFA EL
  • D H FC Union Berlin 1–1 xG 1.75–1.72 GER BI
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 xG 2.82–0.88 GER BI

SC Freiburg

LDWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 7.11–6.97 · xPts 6.74

  • L A LOSC Lille 0–1 xG 0.31–1.32 UEFA EL
  • W H FC Köln 2–1 xG 2.3–1.85 GER BI
  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 2.85–0.2 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.51–1.17 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–2 xG 0.13–2.43 GER BI

All meetings · 28 matches since 2009

VfB Stuttgart 143 draws11 SC Freiburg

Goals 56–41 · 3.46 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 79%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 40 draws6 SC Freiburg

Goals 18–15 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 30 draws2 SC Freiburg

Goals 10–7 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W VfB Stuttgart 1–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 4–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 5–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–0 VfB Stuttgart neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 2–3 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.291.380.88
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 213 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match2.091.761.501.06
Goals against / match1.440.941.682.06
Clean sheets32%47%18%24%
Failed to score9%18%26%47%
Both teams scored62%41%62%41%
Over 2.574%47%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.511.14
xG against / match1.541.201.521.74
xG difference0.260.80-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.23-0.01-0.08
xPts / match1.581.861.361.01
Points vs xPts0.240.430.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first53%53%44%29%
PPG when scoring first2.332.782.001.80
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.880.40
Came back from behind56%71%44%23%
Leads held75%92%68%67%
Minutes leading32%30%22%12%
Minutes level47%58%54%59%
Minutes trailing21%11%23%29%
First goal (min)40433840
First goal conceded (min)38374238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.350.24
Late goals against0.500.470.380.47
Style
Possession58%58%48%45%
Shots15.216.612.310.3
On target6.16.24.23.3
Shot conversion14%11%12%10%
Shots inside box66%65%69%68%
Big chances created3.33.72.31.7
Corners5.75.94.13.7
xG from set plays24%22%42%43%
Goals from headers9%10%14%24%
Pressure index19.217.514.310.3
Dominant minutes61.563.451.043.8
Pass accuracy84%84%80%80%
Fouls9.69.39.49.8
Cards1.911.941.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.65Home 57% P 59%4.2Draw 23% P 22%4.75Away 20% P 19%

Double Chance

1.16VfB Stuttgart or Draw 40% P 41%1.22VfB Stuttgart or SC Freiburg 38% P 39%2.2Draw or SC Freiburg 21% P 20%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 58%2.2No 42% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 60%2.3Under 41% P 40%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.8Over 51% P 45%1.9Under 49% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 17.5–20% · 511 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home59%59%60%+1.3
Draw22%23%24%+1.3
Away19%18%16%-2.6

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%59%60%+0.8

Florian Badstübner

Career
85 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.53 (3.39 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.14-1.147
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.34
Fouls per card6.15.4+1.06 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.32-0.1933
Time added6.06.8-0.9611
First card
39' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-15 11 270 53'12
2026-01-11 10 130 45'9
2025-12-21 14 5
2025-12-11 50 180 10'5
2025-12-07 20 160 65'7
2025-11-22 11 12
2025-11-01 40 300 45'6
2025-10-18 · VfB Stuttgart 20 200 6'8
2025-10-02 40 370 25'7
2025-08-22 50 260 34'11