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Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05FC Augsburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,111

Teams

Coaches
Urs Fischer · Manuel Baum
Position
16 · 11
Formation
3-5-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Patrick Ittrich

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
8.6° (feels 7.5°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
90%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FSV Mainz 05

DWLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 8.7–8.82 · xPts 6.72

  • W A RB Leipzig 2–1 xG 2.0–1.92 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 xG 3.51–1.08 GER BI
  • L A FC Köln 1–2 xG 0.83–2.03 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–1 xG 1.27–1.02 GER BI
  • D A FC Union Berlin 2–2 xG 1.09–2.77 GER BI

FC Augsburg

LDDWW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 5.75–11.03 · xPts 3.94

  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 0.98–2.55 GER BI
  • W A FC Bayern München 2–1 xG 1.33–2.0 GER BI
  • D H SC Freiburg 2–2 xG 1.17–1.51 GER BI
  • D H FC Union Berlin 1–1 xG 0.74–1.75 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 xG 1.53–3.21 GER BI

All meetings · 30 matches since 2011

FSV Mainz 05 153 draws12 FC Augsburg

Goals 50–39 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FSV Mainz 05 71 draws2 FC Augsburg

Goals 21–10 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05 41 draws0 FC Augsburg

Goals 10–3 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 2–3 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 1–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 3–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 4–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 at home · 17FC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.181.001.261.00
W / D / L10 / 10 / 144 / 5 / 812 / 7 / 155 / 2 / 10
Goals for / match1.291.241.321.18
Goals against / match1.561.471.791.94
Clean sheets12%12%15%0%
Failed to score29%35%26%35%
Both teams scored62%59%62%65%
Over 2.553%41%62%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.581.741.391.42
xG against / match1.651.401.842.17
xG difference-0.070.34-0.46-0.75
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.50-0.06-0.24
xPts / match1.391.601.171.02
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.600.10-0.02
Game state
Scored first47%41%50%41%
PPG when scoring first1.811.711.761.14
PPG when conceding first0.590.440.750.90
Came back from behind33%27%21%23%
Leads held53%50%57%50%
Minutes leading28%23%24%18%
Minutes level43%49%46%44%
Minutes trailing29%28%30%38%
First goal (min)37364240
First goal conceded (min)44454138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%52%53%45%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%60%49%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.350.290.29
Late goals against0.590.530.290.41
Style
Possession44%46%44%43%
Shots12.113.613.213.2
On target4.24.24.64.2
Shot conversion11%9%10%9%
Shots inside box76%77%64%62%
Big chances created3.23.42.21.9
Corners5.16.24.64.0
xG from set plays39%38%31%36%
Goals from headers18%14%16%20%
Pressure index10.912.99.56.9
Dominant minutes44.050.340.534.2
Pass accuracy75%76%78%78%
Fouls11.011.811.010.8
Cards2.241.942.472.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.113
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 49% P 49%3.6Draw 26% P 27%3.8Away 25% P 24%

Double Chance

1.25Mainz or Draw 37% P 38%1.28Mainz or Augsburg 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Augsburg 26% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 57%2.0No 47% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 53%1.9Under 50% P 47%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw27%28%29%+1.7
Away24%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Patrick Ittrich

Career
94 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.19 (4.03 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
27.2 · 6.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.37
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 43 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.14-1.147
Fouls / match24.022.3+1.43
Fouls per card6.65.4+1.86 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.350.32+0.2256
Time added6.76.8-0.2233
First card
34' on average
Card timing
21% in first 30' · 28% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.47

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-14 7 15
2025-12-13 10 140 28'10
2025-11-29 50 230 14'10
2025-11-08 50 180 6'10
2025-10-18 40 200 11'12