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Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Momentum

St. PauliVFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Capacity
29,546
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,546

Teams

Coaches
Alexander Blessin · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
17 · 4
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Benjamin Brand

Weather

Conditions
mist
Temperature
1.5° (feels -2.6°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
96%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

St. Pauli

LLDDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 6.82–7.23 · xPts 6.52

  • L A FC Augsburg 1–2 xG 2.55–0.98 GER BI
  • D H RB Leipzig 1–1 xG 1.23–1.45 GER BI
  • D H Hamburger SV 0–0 xG 0.31–0.37 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 2–3 xG 0.89–2.53 GER BI
  • L A VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 xG 1.84–1.91 GER BI

VfB Stuttgart

DLWWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 10.28–6.52 · xPts 9.15

  • W H SC Freiburg 1–0 xG 2.15–0.82 GER BI
  • W H Young Boys 3–2 xG 3.26–1.69 UEFA EL
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 1.67–1.24 GER BI
  • L A Roma 0–2 xG 1.44–1.05 UEFA EL
  • D H FC Union Berlin 1–1 xG 1.75–1.72 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

St. Pauli 20 draws4 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–8 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 6 matches

St. Pauli 20 draws4 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–8 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 5 matches

St. Pauli 20 draws3 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–6 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W St. Pauli 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 0–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 1–2 VfB Stuttgart neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSt. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli at home · 17VfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.821.35
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 818 / 8 / 86 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match0.851.002.092.41
Goals against / match1.761.821.441.94
Clean sheets15%12%32%18%
Failed to score38%35%9%0%
Both teams scored56%65%62%82%
Over 2.556%71%74%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.991.131.801.61
xG against / match1.671.631.541.89
xG difference-0.68-0.500.26-0.28
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.130.280.80
xPts / match0.971.111.581.30
Points vs xPts-0.21-0.110.240.05
Game state
Scored first29%29%53%53%
PPG when scoring first1.702.002.331.89
PPG when conceding first0.290.501.270.75
Came back from behind17%27%56%46%
Leads held54%67%75%54%
Minutes leading13%14%32%34%
Minutes level50%53%47%36%
Minutes trailing37%33%21%30%
First goal (min)50534038
First goal conceded (min)40453838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%71%54%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%68%53%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.290.650.76
Late goals against0.380.410.500.53
Style
Possession44%45%58%57%
Shots10.310.615.213.8
On target3.44.26.16.0
Shot conversion8%9%14%18%
Shots inside box59%61%66%66%
Big chances created1.71.93.32.9
Corners4.75.95.75.5
xG from set plays34%46%24%26%
Goals from headers24%24%9%8%
Pressure index8.410.519.220.8
Dominant minutes38.244.461.559.6
Pass accuracy77%77%84%84%
Fouls9.69.59.69.9
Cards1.681.821.911.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.8h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

5.0Home 19% P 19%3.9Draw 24% P 25%1.66Away 57% P 56%

Double Chance

2.1St Pauli or Draw 22% P 22%1.25St Pauli or VfB Stuttgart 38% P 38%1.18Draw or VfB Stuttgart 40% P 41%

Draw No Bet

3.51 27%1.282 73%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 52%1.95No 48% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 51%2.0Under 47% P 49%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 17.5–20% · away 55–57.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home19%19%20%+0.6
Draw25%25%22%-3.1
Away56%56%59%+2.5

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Benjamin Brand

Career
101 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.01 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 59 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.344.14+0.2763
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.39
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.28 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8889
Time added7.36.8+0.4078
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-16 50 230 52'9
2025-12-20 30 220 30'8
2025-12-05 30 160 25'6
2025-11-22 · VfB Stuttgart 20 221 24'9
2025-11-09 · St. Pauli 40 200 81'8
2025-10-25 40 180 44'11
2025-10-04 30 160 6'8
2025-09-20 20 180 45'8
2025-08-23 50 241 5'7
2025-05-17 60 290 42'16