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Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Momentum

SC FreiburgSVW
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
34,700

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Daniel Thioune
Position
8 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Deniz Aytekin

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
10.4° (feels 9.6°)
Wind
1.2
Humidity
81%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

DWWLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 5 · xG 7.8–6.69 · xPts 7.19

  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–1 xG 0.82–2.15 GER BI
  • L A LOSC Lille 0–1 xG 0.31–1.32 UEFA EL
  • W H FC Köln 2–1 xG 2.3–1.85 GER BI
  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 2.85–0.2 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.51–1.17 GER BI

Werder Bremen

LDLLD 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 10 · xG 6.55–6.08 · xPts 7.29

  • D H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 xG 1.68–0.8 GER BI
  • L H TSG Hoffenheim 0–2 xG 1.89–0.79 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 xG 1.04–1.71 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 xG 1.56–0.84 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–3 xG 0.38–1.94 GER BI

All meetings · 31 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 128 draws11 Werder Bremen

Goals 46–47 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 81 draws1 Werder Bremen

Goals 20–5 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 50 draws0 Werder Bremen

Goals 14–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W SC Freiburg 4–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 5–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 0–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–2 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 0–0 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17Werder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.880.940.76
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 38 / 8 / 183 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.501.941.091.06
Goals against / match1.681.291.761.71
Clean sheets18%12%18%18%
Failed to score26%6%38%41%
Both teams scored62%82%47%47%
Over 2.565%71%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.211.01
xG against / match1.521.311.581.82
xG difference-0.010.58-0.37-0.81
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.120.05
xPts / match1.361.711.210.95
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.27-0.19
Game state
Scored first44%59%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.002.102.101.60
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.430.36
Came back from behind44%70%25%17%
Leads held68%69%62%50%
Minutes leading22%32%16%16%
Minutes level54%50%41%44%
Minutes trailing23%18%43%40%
First goal (min)38375250
First goal conceded (min)42453536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%57%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.410.24
Late goals against0.380.290.320.35
Style
Possession48%51%51%48%
Shots12.314.213.110.8
On target4.25.14.13.6
Shot conversion12%14%8%10%
Shots inside box69%69%62%61%
Big chances created2.32.81.71.5
Corners4.14.54.64.2
xG from set plays42%41%24%24%
Goals from headers14%9%19%6%
Pressure index14.318.312.68.1
Dominant minutes51.058.147.835.1
Pass accuracy80%80%82%81%
Fouls9.48.99.99.5
Cards1.621.652.472.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.462
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.3h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 45%3.4Draw 28% P 29%3.5Away 27% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28SC Freiburg or Draw 37% P 37%1.28SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen 37% P 35%1.8Draw or Werder Bremen 26% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 54%2.2No 42% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 48%2.1Under 45% P 52%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%46%44%-1.8
Draw29%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Deniz Aytekin

Career
307 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.08 (3.87 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
19.4 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.014.14-0.4533
Fouls / match21.922.3-0.51
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.32+0.6782
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
34' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.3

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-18 20 170 1'5
2025-11-08 50 243 11'18
2025-11-01 20 140 65'6
2025-10-19 · SC Freiburg 50 210 33'11
2025-09-28 41 351 38'12
2025-09-12 82 191 19'12
2025-05-11 20 150 23'9
2025-04-27 50 201 20'12
2025-04-12 · SC Freiburg 10 150 79'4
2025-03-29 41 150 19'8