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Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Momentum

WOBBVB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,917

Teams

Coaches
Daniel Bauer · Niko Kovač
Position
14 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Timo Gerach

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
1.8° (feels 0.0°)
Wind
1.7
Humidity
99%

Where to watch · 431

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 14 · xG 6.33–9.93 · xPts 5.18

  • L A FC Köln 0–1 xG 1.29–1.13 GER BI
  • L A FSV Mainz 05 1–3 xG 1.08–3.51 GER BI
  • D H FC Heidenheim 1–1 xG 1.13–1.11 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 1.91–1.84 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–8 xG 0.92–2.33 GER BI

Borussia Dortmund

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 9.6–7.76 · xPts 7.61

  • W H FC Heidenheim 3–2 xG 4.1–2.25 GER BI
  • L H Inter 0–2 xG 0.62–1.28 UEFA CL
  • W A FC Union Berlin 3–0 xG 1.94–1.22 GER BI
  • L A Tottenham Hotspur 0–2 xG 0.41–2.13 UEFA CL
  • W H St. Pauli 3–2 xG 2.53–0.89 GER BI

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

VfL Wolfsburg 77 draws28 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 42–95 · 3.26 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 64%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 11 draws8 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 7–27 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 01 draws4 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 3–11 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 4–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 6–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 6–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17Borussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.592.151.88
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 1122 / 7 / 59 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match1.321.242.061.76
Goals against / match2.031.881.001.06
Clean sheets6%6%44%35%
Failed to score24%29%6%6%
Both teams scored74%71%50%59%
Over 2.565%65%56%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.581.831.40
xG against / match1.891.691.251.42
xG difference-0.50-0.110.58-0.02
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.350.230.36
xPts / match1.141.341.691.37
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.750.460.51
Game state
Scored first53%35%76%76%
PPG when scoring first1.441.172.502.38
PPG when conceding first0.130.201.000.25
Came back from behind10%15%54%40%
Leads held35%25%79%69%
Minutes leading27%18%42%36%
Minutes level43%48%46%52%
Minutes trailing30%34%12%12%
First goal (min)35383944
First goal conceded (min)43384858
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%54%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%68%72%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.240.590.53
Late goals against0.560.470.350.53
Style
Possession45%48%53%51%
Shots11.913.613.111.4
On target4.24.74.84.2
Shot conversion11%9%16%16%
Shots inside box64%66%74%77%
Big chances created2.63.03.22.5
Corners4.45.45.33.4
xG from set plays32%32%36%34%
Goals from headers25%33%23%27%
Pressure index9.112.716.812.0
Dominant minutes38.146.355.446.4
Pass accuracy78%80%83%82%
Fouls11.512.111.611.6
Cards2.152.291.912.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.5Home 21% P 20%4.33Draw 22% P 23%1.66Away 57% P 57%

Double Chance

2.15Wolfsburg or Draw 22% P 22%1.2Wolfsburg or Borussia Dortmund 39% P 39%1.18Draw or Borussia Dortmund 39% P 40%

Draw No Bet

3.41 28%1.32 72%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 62%2.25No 41% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 63%2.5Under 38% P 37%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 55%2.2Under 42% P 45%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 55–57.5% · 207 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home20%21%18%-2.6
Draw23%23%25%+2.1
Away57%56%57%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 63%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Timo Gerach

Career
30 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.43 (4.13 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
20.9 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.5
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 29 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.15+0.6674
Fouls / match20.922.3-1.38
Fouls per card4.85.4-1.03 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.480.33+1.7296
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
36' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 26% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-10 81 241 4'13
2025-11-28 30 180 45'8
2025-10-18 40 261 7'8
2025-09-20 70 202 35'10
2025-08-30 50 240 45'9
2025-05-11 21 160 12'9
2025-04-13 20 130 30'2
2025-03-15 31 172 6'9
2025-02-22 · VfL Wolfsburg 50 230 7'6