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Bundesliga · Matchweek 22

Momentum

TSGSC Freiburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
22

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,679

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Lars Voßler
Position
3 · 8
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Florian Exner

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
2.7° (feels -0.2°)
Wind
3.0
Humidity
87%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

WWWWL 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 6.48–10.83 · xPts 5.73

  • L A FC Bayern München 1–5 xG 1.33–5.76 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 1.64–1.45 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 0.79–1.89 GER BI
  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 xG 1.33–0.79 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 xG 1.38–0.94 GER BI

SC Freiburg

WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 3 · xG 6.85–6.82 · xPts 6.35

  • W H Werder Bremen 1–0 xG 0.56–1.3 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–1 xG 0.82–2.15 GER BI
  • L A LOSC Lille 0–1 xG 0.31–1.32 UEFA EL
  • W H FC Köln 2–1 xG 2.3–1.85 GER BI
  • W H Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 xG 2.85–0.2 UEFA EL

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

TSG Hoffenheim 713 draws12 SC Freiburg

Goals 49–54 · 3.22 per match · BTTS 78% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 23 draws5 SC Freiburg

Goals 16–17 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 12 draws2 SC Freiburg

Goals 9–8 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W TSG Hoffenheim 3–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 3–4 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim at home · 17SC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.791.881.380.88
W / D / L18 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 513 / 8 / 134 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.912.061.501.06
Goals against / match1.531.241.682.06
Clean sheets21%24%18%24%
Failed to score18%12%26%47%
Both teams scored65%65%62%41%
Over 2.571%71%65%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.861.511.14
xG against / match1.461.211.521.74
xG difference0.250.65-0.01-0.59
Finishing vs xG0.200.20-0.01-0.08
xPts / match1.581.781.361.01
Points vs xPts0.210.100.02-0.12
Game state
Scored first47%59%44%29%
PPG when scoring first2.752.802.001.80
PPG when conceding first0.940.570.880.40
Came back from behind47%29%44%23%
Leads held86%91%68%67%
Minutes leading37%46%22%12%
Minutes level40%35%54%59%
Minutes trailing22%19%23%29%
First goal (min)34363840
First goal conceded (min)37474238
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%40%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%62%61%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.410.350.24
Late goals against0.350.350.380.47
Style
Possession55%57%48%45%
Shots14.116.212.310.3
On target5.25.94.23.3
Shot conversion14%13%12%10%
Shots inside box69%68%69%68%
Big chances created2.83.12.31.7
Corners5.86.44.13.7
xG from set plays35%36%42%43%
Goals from headers22%21%14%24%
Pressure index14.516.614.310.3
Dominant minutes56.963.451.043.8
Pass accuracy80%82%80%80%
Fouls13.913.49.49.8
Cards2.261.821.621.59

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
3-4-2-12 6%3.02.51.01.611.21

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.6h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.66Home 57% P 55%4.1Draw 23% P 24%4.75Away 20% P 20%

Double Chance

1.18TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 40% P 40%1.22TSG Hoffenheim or SC Freiburg 38% P 38%2.15Draw or SC Freiburg 22% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 58%2.05No 45% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 58%2.1Under 45% P 42%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
5.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 20–22.5% · 298 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%56%60%+4.1
Draw24%23%21%-1.7
Away20%21%18%-2.4

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 59%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Florian Exner

Career
26 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.85 (4.58 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
52%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.044.14+1.8296
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card4.35.4-1.83 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.32+0.6378
Time added9.96.8+3.13100
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-27 10 141 49'6
2026-01-24 20 150 73'7
2025-12-06 · SC Freiburg 30 210 13'9
2025-11-08 60 160 15'14
2025-10-18 80 302 30'15
2025-09-27 30 220 90'13
2025-09-20 60 250 22'11
2025-08-30 70 250 31'20
2025-05-03 92 291 16'10
2025-04-11 50 270 34'6