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Bundesliga · Matchweek 23

Momentum

FCUB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
23

Venue

Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Capacity
22,012
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,012

Teams

Coaches
Steffen Baumgart · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
10 · 6
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
7.0° (feels 4.0°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
92%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Union Berlin

DLLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 7.6–7.29 · xPts 7.3

  • L A Hamburger SV 2–3 xG 1.84–1.72 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 xG 1.37–0.24 GER BI
  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 1–3 xG 1.45–1.64 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–3 xG 1.22–1.94 GER BI
  • D A VfB Stuttgart 1–1 xG 1.72–1.75 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WWDWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 13 GA 2 · xG 7.24–3.29 · xPts 9.43

  • W A Olympiacos F.C. 2–0 xG 1.52–0.83 UEFA CL
  • W H St. Pauli 4–0 xG 1.65–0.65 GER BI
  • D A Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 xG 0.7–0.63 GER BI
  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 xG 1.06–0.93 GER BI
  • W H Villarreal 3–0 xG 2.31–0.25 UEFA CL

All meetings · 15 matches since 2019

FC Union Berlin 25 draws8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 9–27 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 40%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Union Berlin 13 draws6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 4–20 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Union Berlin 11 draws3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 2–8 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Union Berlin all · 34FC Union Berlin at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.151.291.741.65
W / D / L10 / 9 / 155 / 7 / 517 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match1.291.532.001.76
Goals against / match1.711.531.381.65
Clean sheets21%24%24%12%
Failed to score24%18%12%24%
Both teams scored62%71%65%65%
Over 2.562%71%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.371.561.911.40
xG against / match1.481.161.401.71
xG difference-0.110.400.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.030.090.36
xPts / match1.371.641.651.21
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.350.080.44
Game state
Scored first41%47%65%59%
PPG when scoring first2.212.002.232.30
PPG when conceding first0.330.570.830.71
Came back from behind29%44%40%38%
Leads held71%62%68%67%
Minutes leading18%27%40%39%
Minutes level50%47%39%36%
Minutes trailing31%26%20%25%
First goal (min)53453429
First goal conceded (min)43443934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half66%62%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%58%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.530.350.24
Late goals against0.410.470.260.35
Style
Possession40%41%59%57%
Shots12.513.215.211.7
On target3.94.45.23.8
Shot conversion10%12%13%15%
Shots inside box73%71%64%61%
Big chances created2.22.53.73.1
Corners5.05.25.64.5
xG from set plays48%50%27%26%
Goals from headers21%23%19%14%
Pressure index9.19.816.111.6
Dominant minutes34.737.357.149.4
Pass accuracy72%70%88%87%
Fouls12.312.18.68.5
Cards2.152.592.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Union Berlin

0–15'34
16–30'65
31–45'618
46–60'611
61–75'66
76–90'1714

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-119 56%1.211.211.471.441.36
3-5-26 18%0.51.172.670.932.24
5-3-25 15%0.81.02.21.161.45
4-2-3-12 6%3.03.50.52.551.07
3-4-31 3%0.01.02.01.940.21

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 47.6h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.2Home 23% P 30%3.2Draw 23% P 30%2.35Away 31% P 41%3.3Tie 22%

Double Chance

1.57Union Berlin or Draw 18% P 30%1.36Tie or Bayer Leverkusen 21% P 35%1.36Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen 21% P 35%1.53Union Berlin or Tie 19% P 35%1.36Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 21% P 35%

Draw No Bet

2.21 42%1.612 58%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 27% P 52%2.0No 23% P 48%2.05Não 23%1.7Sim 27%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 24% P 45%1.8Under 26% P 55%1.9Mais de 25%1.9Menos de 25%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 40–42.5% · 469 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home30%29%31%+2.1
Draw30%30%25%-4.9
Away41%41%44%+2.7

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%46%45%-1.2

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.154.15-0.1548
Fouls / match21.422.3-0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.33+0.1352
Time added6.76.8-0.2333
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-31 100 281 23'15
2026-01-22 61 200 29'13
2026-01-17 40 201 16'7
2026-01-11 10 251 54'6
2025-12-13 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 30 140 5'5
2025-11-30 50 161 56'6
2025-11-27 50 240 33'6
2025-11-09 50 231 17'12
2025-10-26 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 31 170 15'9
2025-10-23 60 270 13'7