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Bundesliga · Matchweek 23

Momentum

St. PauliSVW
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
23

Venue

Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Capacity
29,546
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,546

Teams

Coaches
Alexander Blessin · Daniel Thioune
Position
17 · 16
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Sören Storks

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
8.7° (feels 5.7°)
Wind
5.7
Humidity
94%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

St. Pauli

DDLWL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 6.64–5.06 · xPts 7.6

  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–4 xG 0.65–1.65 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 2–1 xG 1.9–0.62 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 1–2 xG 2.55–0.98 GER BI
  • D H RB Leipzig 1–1 xG 1.23–1.45 GER BI
  • D H Hamburger SV 0–0 xG 0.31–0.37 GER BI

Werder Bremen

LLDLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 1 GA 8 · xG 6.8–5.8 · xPts 7.68

  • L H FC Bayern München 0–3 xG 0.89–1.94 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 0–1 xG 1.3–0.56 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 xG 1.68–0.8 GER BI
  • L H TSG Hoffenheim 0–2 xG 1.89–0.79 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 xG 1.04–1.71 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

St. Pauli 11 draws4 Werder Bremen

Goals 3–10 · 2.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

St. Pauli 11 draws4 Werder Bremen

Goals 3–10 · 2.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

St. Pauli 11 draws3 Werder Bremen

Goals 3–7 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W St. Pauli 2–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 1–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 0–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 0–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 1–3 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 3–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSt. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli at home · 17Werder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.000.940.76
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 88 / 8 / 183 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match0.851.001.091.06
Goals against / match1.761.821.761.71
Clean sheets15%12%18%18%
Failed to score38%35%38%41%
Both teams scored56%65%47%47%
Over 2.556%71%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.991.131.211.01
xG against / match1.671.631.581.82
xG difference-0.68-0.50-0.37-0.81
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.13-0.120.05
xPts / match0.971.111.210.95
Points vs xPts-0.21-0.11-0.27-0.19
Game state
Scored first29%29%29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.702.002.101.60
PPG when conceding first0.290.500.430.36
Came back from behind17%27%25%17%
Leads held54%67%62%50%
Minutes leading13%14%16%16%
Minutes level50%53%41%44%
Minutes trailing37%33%43%40%
First goal (min)50535250
First goal conceded (min)40453536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%71%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%68%57%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.290.410.24
Late goals against0.380.410.320.35
Style
Possession44%45%51%48%
Shots10.310.613.110.8
On target3.44.24.13.6
Shot conversion8%9%8%10%
Shots inside box59%61%62%61%
Big chances created1.71.91.71.5
Corners4.75.94.64.2
xG from set plays34%46%24%24%
Goals from headers24%24%19%6%
Pressure index8.410.512.68.1
Dominant minutes38.244.447.835.1
Pass accuracy77%77%82%81%
Fouls9.69.59.99.5
Cards1.681.822.472.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.472
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 73.1h before kick-off · stale. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 22% P 35%3.2Draw 18% P 30%2.75Away 21% P 34%2.7St Pauli 21%3.1Tie 18%

Double Chance

1.4St Pauli or Draw 20% P 33%1.4Tie or Werder Bremen 20% P 35%1.44St Pauli or Tie 20% P 35%1.36St Pauli or Werder Bremen 21% P 35%1.44Draw or Werder Bremen 20% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 33%1.832 33%1.83St Pauli 33%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 26% P 53%1.95No 24% P 47%1.8Não 26%1.95Sim 24%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 24% P 46%1.8Under 26% P 54%2.3Mais de 21%1.61Menos de 29%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 7%3.16 - 8 24%2.69 - 11 29%4.3312 - 14 17%10.0Over 14 7%10.0Moins de 6 7%10.0Plus de 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%36%35%-1.6
Draw30%30%32%+2.1
Away34%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Sören Storks

Career
70 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.97 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 30 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.234.15+2.22100
Fouls / match20.822.3-1.47
Fouls per card4.15.4-2.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.33-1.850
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
38' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-06 71 201 25'12
2026-01-25 20 181 43'8
2025-12-13 · St. Pauli 51 210 25'9
2025-11-30 61 280 23'7
2025-11-01 70 330 1'10
2025-10-04 · St. Pauli · Werder Bremen 40 170 68'9
2025-08-31 81 291 40'16
2025-05-03 · Werder Bremen 50 170 45'7
2025-04-20 · St. Pauli 50 240 63'5
2025-03-30 70 190 68'10