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Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Momentum

TSGSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
24

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,786

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Alexander Blessin
Position
3 · 16
Formation
3-1-4-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Deniz Aytekin

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
12.2° (feels 11.1°)
Wind
5.6
Humidity
60%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

WWLWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 8 · xG 8.36–11.02 · xPts 6.69

  • D A FC Köln 2–2 xG 2.28–0.89 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 3–0 xG 2.31–1.02 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–5 xG 1.33–5.76 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 1.64–1.45 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 0.79–1.89 GER BI

St. Pauli

DLWLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 9 · xG 6.74–6.31 · xPts 6.95

  • W H Werder Bremen 2–1 xG 0.41–1.62 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–4 xG 0.65–1.65 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 2–1 xG 1.9–0.62 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 1–2 xG 2.55–0.98 GER BI
  • D H RB Leipzig 1–1 xG 1.23–1.45 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

TSG Hoffenheim 21 draws3 St. Pauli

Goals 6–6 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 17% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 6 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 21 draws3 St. Pauli

Goals 6–6 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 17% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 11 draws3 St. Pauli

Goals 5–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 1–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 0–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–1 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.791.880.760.53
W / D / L18 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 56 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.912.060.850.71
Goals against / match1.531.241.761.71
Clean sheets21%24%15%18%
Failed to score18%12%38%41%
Both teams scored65%65%56%47%
Over 2.571%71%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.860.990.85
xG against / match1.461.211.671.70
xG difference0.250.65-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG0.200.20-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.581.780.970.83
Points vs xPts0.210.10-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first47%59%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.752.801.701.40
PPG when conceding first0.940.570.290.09
Came back from behind47%29%17%8%
Leads held86%91%54%40%
Minutes leading37%46%13%12%
Minutes level40%35%50%47%
Minutes trailing22%19%37%40%
First goal (min)34365047
First goal conceded (min)37474034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%40%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%62%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.410.210.12
Late goals against0.350.350.380.35
Style
Possession55%57%44%44%
Shots14.116.210.39.9
On target5.25.93.42.5
Shot conversion14%13%8%7%
Shots inside box69%68%59%57%
Big chances created2.83.11.71.5
Corners5.86.44.73.6
xG from set plays35%36%34%19%
Goals from headers22%21%24%25%
Pressure index14.516.68.46.2
Dominant minutes56.963.438.232.0
Pass accuracy80%82%77%77%
Fouls13.913.49.69.7
Cards2.261.821.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
3-5-1-12 6%3.03.01.51.641.43

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.5Home 45% P 63%4.33Draw 15% P 22%6.0Away 11% P 15%5.75St Pauli 12%3.9Tie 17%

Double Chance

1.14TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 25% P 42%1.2TSG Hoffenheim or St Pauli 24% P 39%1.12TSG Hoffenheim or Tie 26% P 39%2.37Tie or St Pauli 12% P 39%2.37Draw or St Pauli 12% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.21 64%4.332 18%4.33St Pauli 18%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 47%1.8No 52% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 51%2.0Under 47% P 49%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 44%1.8Under 51% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home63%63%64%+0.7
Draw22%21%19%-2.0
Away15%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Deniz Aytekin

Career
307 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.08 (3.87 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
19.4 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.014.14-0.4533
Fouls / match21.922.3-0.51
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.32+0.6782
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
34' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.3

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-07 11 210 52'9
2026-01-18 20 170 1'5
2025-11-08 50 243 11'18
2025-11-01 20 140 65'6
2025-10-19 50 210 33'11
2025-09-28 41 351 38'12
2025-09-12 82 191 19'12
2025-05-11 20 150 23'9
2025-04-27 50 201 20'12
2025-04-12 10 150 79'4