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Bundesliga · Matchweek 24

Momentum

VFBWOB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
24

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
57,500

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Daniel Bauer
Position
4 · 17
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Patrick Ittrich

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
12.6° (feels 11.4°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
60%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

LWWDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 8 · xG 8.93–7.57 · xPts 7.75

  • L H Celtic 0–1 xG 2.35–0.29 UEFA EL
  • D A FC Heidenheim 3–3 xG 2.08–2.35 GER BI
  • W A Celtic 4–1 xG 1.96–1.54 UEFA EL
  • W H FC Köln 3–1 xG 1.93–1.49 GER BI
  • L A St. Pauli 1–2 xG 0.62–1.9 GER BI

VfL Wolfsburg

LLLDL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 5.83–11.14 · xPts 4.33

  • L H FC Augsburg 2–3 xG 1.64–1.87 GER BI
  • D A RB Leipzig 2–2 xG 0.65–2.82 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 1–2 xG 1.17–1.8 GER BI
  • L A FC Köln 0–1 xG 1.29–1.13 GER BI
  • L A FSV Mainz 05 1–3 xG 1.08–3.51 GER BI

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

VfB Stuttgart 146 draws18 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 53–59 · 2.95 per match · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 52 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 21–12 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 31 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 13–6 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W VfB Stuttgart 4–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 0–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 3–2 VfB Stuttgart neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 VfB Stuttgart neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17VfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.290.851.12
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 27 / 8 / 195 / 4 / 8
Goals for / match2.091.761.321.41
Goals against / match1.440.942.032.18
Clean sheets32%47%6%6%
Failed to score9%18%24%18%
Both teams scored62%41%74%76%
Over 2.574%47%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.391.20
xG against / match1.541.201.892.10
xG difference0.260.80-0.50-0.89
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.23-0.070.21
xPts / match1.581.861.140.93
Points vs xPts0.240.43-0.280.19
Game state
Scored first53%53%53%71%
PPG when scoring first2.332.781.441.58
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.130.00
Came back from behind56%71%10%0%
Leads held75%92%35%42%
Minutes leading32%30%27%36%
Minutes level47%58%43%38%
Minutes trailing21%11%30%26%
First goal (min)40433532
First goal conceded (min)38374348
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%51%46%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%62%68%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.210.18
Late goals against0.500.470.560.65
Style
Possession58%58%45%42%
Shots15.216.611.910.2
On target6.16.24.23.7
Shot conversion14%11%11%14%
Shots inside box66%65%64%60%
Big chances created3.33.72.62.2
Corners5.75.94.43.5
xG from set plays24%22%32%32%
Goals from headers9%10%25%17%
Pressure index19.217.59.15.6
Dominant minutes61.563.438.129.8
Pass accuracy84%84%78%76%
Fouls9.69.311.511.0
Cards1.911.942.152.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 239.4h before kick-off · stale. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.4Home 36% P 69%5.5Draw 9% P 17%6.25Away 8% P 14%4.2Empate 12%4.2Match nul 12%4.2Tie 12%5.25Wolfsburg 10%

Double Chance

1.1VfB Stuttgart or Draw 13% P 43%2.37Tie or Wolfsburg 6% P 41%1.16VfB Stuttgart or Tie 13% P 41%1.14VfB Stuttgart or Wolfsburg 13% P 41%3.0Draw or Wolfsburg 5% P 16%2.37Empate ou Wolfsburg 6%2.37Match nul ou Wolfsburg 6%1.16VfB Stuttgart ou Empate 13%1.16VfB Stuttgart ou match nul 13%1.22VfB Stuttgart ou Wolfsburg 12%

Draw No Bet

1.121 69%6.02 13%4.33Wolfsburg 18%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 20% P 63%2.25No 14% P 37%2.25Não 14%2.25Non 14%1.57Oui 20%1.57Sim 20%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.33Over 24% P 72%3.4Under 9% P 28%1.5Mais de 21%2.62Menos de 12%2.62Moins de 12%1.5Plus de 21%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.629 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 46%1.83Under 50% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 67.5–70% · away 12.5–15% · 243 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home69%68%68%-0.1
Draw17%18%18%-0.3
Away14%13%14%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.4 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes63%64%64%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.572%71%70%-1.4

Patrick Ittrich

Career
94 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.19 (4.03 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
27.2 · 6.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.37
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 43 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.14-1.147
Fouls / match24.022.3+1.43
Fouls per card6.65.4+1.86 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.350.32+0.2256
Time added6.76.8-0.2233
First card
34' on average
Card timing
21% in first 30' · 28% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.47

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-07 40 222 60'9
2026-01-14 7 15
2025-12-13 · VfL Wolfsburg 10 140 28'10
2025-11-29 50 230 14'10
2025-11-08 50 180 6'10
2025-10-18 40 200 11'12