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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

HeidenheimTSG
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion, Heidenheim an der Brenz
Capacity
15,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
15,000

Teams

Coaches
Frank Schmidt · Moritz Volz
Position
18 · 3
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robert Hartmann

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
12.7° (feels 11.7°)
Wind
1.6
Humidity
65%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Heidenheim

LLLDL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 8.36–11.68 · xPts 5.24

  • L A Werder Bremen 0–2 xG 1.18–1.66 GER BI
  • D H VfB Stuttgart 3–3 xG 2.35–2.08 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–1 xG 0.96–2.0 GER BI
  • L H Hamburger SV 0–2 xG 1.63–1.84 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 2–3 xG 2.25–4.1 GER BI

TSG Hoffenheim

WLWDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 9 · xG 10.4–9.94 · xPts 8.52

  • L H St. Pauli 0–1 xG 2.84–0.81 GER BI
  • D A FC Köln 2–2 xG 2.28–0.89 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 3–0 xG 2.31–1.02 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–5 xG 1.33–5.76 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 1.64–1.45 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Heidenheim 03 draws3 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 7–12 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 83% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Heidenheim 03 draws3 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 7–12 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 83% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Heidenheim 03 draws2 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 5–9 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Heidenheim 2–4 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 3–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Heidenheim 0–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Heidenheim 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHeidenheim all · 34Heidenheim at home · 17TSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.791.71
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 818 / 7 / 98 / 5 / 4
Goals for / match1.211.351.911.76
Goals against / match2.122.181.531.82
Clean sheets3%6%21%18%
Failed to score35%35%18%24%
Both teams scored62%59%65%65%
Over 2.568%71%71%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.461.711.56
xG against / match1.911.931.461.70
xG difference-0.55-0.470.25-0.14
Finishing vs xG-0.16-0.110.200.20
xPts / match1.101.151.581.38
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.150.210.33
Game state
Scored first24%29%47%35%
PPG when scoring first2.002.202.752.67
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.941.20
Came back from behind23%33%47%60%
Leads held46%57%86%80%
Minutes leading15%18%37%28%
Minutes level48%46%40%46%
Minutes trailing37%36%22%26%
First goal (min)45363433
First goal conceded (min)39383727
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%61%45%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%54%50%42%
Late goals for (76'+)0.320.410.290.18
Late goals against0.440.530.350.35
Style
Possession42%42%55%54%
Shots11.411.514.112.0
On target3.63.95.24.4
Shot conversion11%12%14%15%
Shots inside box69%66%69%70%
Big chances created2.52.72.82.5
Corners4.54.65.85.2
xG from set plays33%38%35%33%
Goals from headers15%13%22%23%
Pressure index7.77.414.512.4
Dominant minutes35.337.556.950.5
Pass accuracy76%76%80%79%
Fouls9.89.413.914.5
Cards1.441.182.262.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
3-4-2-12 6%3.02.51.01.611.21

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

5.5Home 17% P 17%4.75Draw 20% P 21%1.5Away 63% P 63%

Double Chance

2.5Heidenheim or Draw 12% P 19%1.18Heidenheim or TSG Hoffenheim 25% P 40%2.15Heidenheim or Tie 14% P 40%1.18Tie or TSG Hoffenheim 25% P 40%1.16Draw or TSG Hoffenheim 25% P 42%

Draw No Bet

4.331 22%1.22 78%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 61%2.25No 41% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.44Over 66% P 65%2.75Under 34% P 35%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 45%1.83Under 50% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 15–17.5% · away 62.5–65% · 188 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home17%16%17%+1.1
Draw21%21%26%+4.9
Away63%63%57%-6.0

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%66%69%+3.2

Robert Hartmann

Career
180 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.63 (3.49 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 60 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.974.15-0.5530
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.40
Fouls per card5.95.4+0.64 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.33+0.4167
Time added7.06.8+0.0952
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 50 200 29'7
2026-01-24 10 261 59'9
2026-01-14 40 280 14'8
2025-12-14 21 170 11'10
2025-11-22 30 190 34'7
2025-11-01 40 190 18'8
2025-10-05 50 270 17'10
2025-09-20 · TSG Hoffenheim 30 262 9'14
2025-08-23 80 340 26'14
2025-04-26 30 240 37'12