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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

FC KölnBVB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Capacity
50,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
50,000

Teams

Coaches
Lukas Kwasniok · Niko Kovač
Position
13 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Daniel Siebert

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
10.7° (feels 9.7°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
72%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Köln

WLLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 5.37–9.56 · xPts 4.33

  • L A FC Augsburg 0–2 xG 0.49–1.27 GER BI
  • D H TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 xG 0.89–2.28 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 1–3 xG 1.49–1.93 GER BI
  • L H RB Leipzig 1–2 xG 1.36–2.79 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 xG 1.13–1.29 GER BI

Borussia Dortmund

WWDLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 9 · xG 8.56–9.64 · xPts 6.61

  • L H FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 1.53–2.21 GER BI
  • L A Atalanta 1–4 xG 1.09–2.71 UEFA CL
  • D A RB Leipzig 2–2 xG 1.49–2.77 GER BI
  • W H Atalanta 2–0 xG 1.86–0.54 UEFA CL
  • W H FSV Mainz 05 4–0 xG 2.59–1.41 GER BI

All meetings · 30 matches since 2005

FC Köln 47 draws19 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 27–67 · 3.13 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Köln 22 draws6 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 10–22 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Köln 00 draws5 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 2–14 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Köln 1–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 0–4 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 6–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 3–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 2–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 1–2 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Köln all · 34FC Köln at home · 17Borussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.941.122.151.88
W / D / L7 / 11 / 165 / 4 / 822 / 7 / 59 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match1.441.762.061.76
Goals against / match1.851.761.001.06
Clean sheets9%6%44%35%
Failed to score12%6%6%6%
Both teams scored79%88%50%59%
Over 2.565%76%56%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.591.831.40
xG against / match1.661.441.251.42
xG difference-0.180.140.58-0.02
Finishing vs xG-0.050.180.230.36
xPts / match1.271.441.691.37
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.320.460.51
Game state
Scored first41%53%76%76%
PPG when scoring first1.571.562.502.38
PPG when conceding first0.500.631.000.25
Came back from behind38%33%54%40%
Leads held44%46%79%69%
Minutes leading19%27%42%36%
Minutes level51%47%46%52%
Minutes trailing30%26%12%12%
First goal (min)42363944
First goal conceded (min)44464858
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%63%54%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%57%68%72%
Late goals for (76'+)0.560.650.590.53
Late goals against0.350.290.350.53
Style
Possession47%49%53%51%
Shots13.415.213.111.4
On target4.75.64.84.2
Shot conversion11%12%16%16%
Shots inside box70%69%74%77%
Big chances created2.52.93.22.5
Corners4.64.85.33.4
xG from set plays27%25%36%34%
Goals from headers16%17%23%27%
Pressure index11.013.316.812.0
Dominant minutes42.849.955.446.4
Pass accuracy80%80%83%82%
Fouls8.38.511.611.6
Cards2.002.061.912.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.492
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.9Home 24% P 23%3.9Draw 24% P 24%1.83Away 52% P 54%

Double Chance

1.9Cologne or Draw 25% P 23%1.25Cologne or Borussia Dortmund 38% P 38%1.25Draw or Borussia Dortmund 38% P 39%

Draw No Bet

3.01 31%1.362 69%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 62%2.25No 41% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 62%2.3Under 41% P 38%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 52.5–55% · 125 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home23%23%21%-2.5
Draw24%23%20%-3.2
Away54%54%59%+5.7

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.5

Daniel Siebert

Career
74 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.8 (4.61 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 46 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.264.14+0.1059
Fouls / match22.322.3-0.14
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.36 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.32-0.5326
Time added7.76.8+0.8285
First card
30' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.15

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-22 30 170 27'6
2026-02-18 20 180 45'7
2026-02-07 20 170 6'9
2026-01-24 50 192 33'12
2026-01-21 60 150 26'10
2026-01-13 · Borussia Dortmund 20 220 22'4
2025-12-20 50 270 32'4
2025-12-10 40 250 27'4
2025-12-06 30 261 53'9
2025-11-04 50 290 24'6