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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

St. PauliSGE
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Capacity
29,546
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,546

Teams

Coaches
Alexander Blessin · Riera
Position
15 · 7
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Felix Zwayer

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
15.8° (feels 14.5°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
43%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

St. Pauli

LWLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 6.31–7.7 · xPts 6.1

  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 xG 0.81–2.84 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 2–1 xG 0.41–1.62 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–4 xG 0.65–1.65 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 2–1 xG 1.9–0.62 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 1–2 xG 2.55–0.98 GER BI

Eintracht Frankfurt

LDWLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 5.9–7.53 · xPts 5.76

  • W H SC Freiburg 2–0 xG 1.34–0.61 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 2.24–2.73 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 1.15–1.76 GER BI
  • D A FC Union Berlin 1–1 xG 0.24–1.37 GER BI
  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–3 xG 0.93–1.06 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

St. Pauli 02 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 4–10 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

St. Pauli 02 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 4–10 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

St. Pauli 02 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 3–7 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D St. Pauli 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSt. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli at home · 17Eintracht Frankfurt all · 34Eintracht Frankfurt away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.291.12
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 811 / 11 / 124 / 7 / 6
Goals for / match0.851.001.791.88
Goals against / match1.761.821.912.24
Clean sheets15%12%21%6%
Failed to score38%35%9%12%
Both teams scored56%65%74%88%
Over 2.556%71%68%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.991.131.351.21
xG against / match1.671.631.501.76
xG difference-0.68-0.50-0.15-0.55
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.130.450.67
xPts / match0.971.111.311.06
Points vs xPts-0.21-0.11-0.020.05
Game state
Scored first29%29%50%41%
PPG when scoring first1.702.001.941.57
PPG when conceding first0.290.500.630.78
Came back from behind17%27%43%50%
Leads held54%67%55%44%
Minutes leading13%14%25%28%
Minutes level50%53%46%42%
Minutes trailing37%33%29%30%
First goal (min)50534133
First goal conceded (min)40453536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%71%56%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%68%58%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.290.380.35
Late goals against0.380.410.560.82
Style
Possession44%45%55%56%
Shots10.310.612.010.9
On target3.44.24.63.9
Shot conversion8%9%15%17%
Shots inside box59%61%67%66%
Big chances created1.71.92.52.4
Corners4.75.94.73.9
xG from set plays34%46%28%22%
Goals from headers24%24%12%12%
Pressure index8.410.512.812.3
Dominant minutes38.244.448.544.5
Pass accuracy77%77%83%83%
Fouls9.69.510.410.6
Cards1.681.822.062.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Eintracht Frankfurt

0–15'59
16–30'118
31–45'1110
46–60'119
61–75'1010
76–90'1319

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

Eintracht Frankfurt · 3 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.76

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.183
Early press (0-15, level)-0.023

Game state

When ahead+0.253
When level-0.193
When behind+0.102
10 min after conceding-0.073
10 min after scoring+0.763

Situations

Away+0.042
4+ days rest+0.183

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.223
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.253

Ahead vs level +0.45 · Behind vs level +0.29

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33

Eintracht Frankfurt

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · conceding 11

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-110 29%0.71.52.51.321.98
4-2-3-110 29%1.51.71.61.211.39
4-1-4-14 12%2.02.51.751.791.21
4-3-34 12%1.01.251.51.380.87
4-5-12 6%1.53.53.01.551.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.7h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.5Home 38% P 37%3.4Draw 28% P 29%2.87Away 33% P 34%

Double Chance

1.44St Pauli or Draw 32% P 33%1.3St Pauli or Eintracht Frankfurt 36% P 36%1.44Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt 32% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-1.6
Draw29%30%32%+2.1
Away34%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Felix Zwayer

Career
349 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.57 (4.39 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
21.0 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.224.14+0.0152
Fouls / match21.822.3-0.57
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.32-0.2030
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-26 51 241 16'9
2026-02-15 30 181 79'5
2026-01-31 10 240 44'6
2026-01-28 90 300 29'8
2026-01-17 80 160 18'6
2026-01-10 60 242 38'6
2025-12-14 51 210 11'8
2025-12-09 50 251 13'13
2025-11-29 · St. Pauli 20 130 39'8
2025-11-26 11 261 45'7