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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

RB LeipzigFC Augsburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Capacity
47,069
Surface
grass
Attendance
41,563

Teams

Coaches
Ole Werner · Manuel Baum
Position
5 · 9
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Martin Petersen

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
15.8° (feels 14.8°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
51%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

RB Leipzig

LWDDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 13.69–6.04 · xPts 10.97

  • W A Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 3.39–0.54 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 2–2 xG 2.77–1.49 GER BI
  • D H VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 xG 2.82–0.65 GER BI
  • W A FC Köln 2–1 xG 2.79–1.36 GER BI
  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 1.92–2.0 GER BI

FC Augsburg

WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 6.89–7.87 · xPts 6.62

  • W H FC Köln 2–0 xG 1.27–0.49 GER BI
  • W A VfL Wolfsburg 3–2 xG 1.87–1.64 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 1–0 xG 2.0–0.96 GER BI
  • L A FSV Mainz 05 0–2 xG 0.77–2.23 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 0.98–2.55 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2016

RB Leipzig 127 draws1 FC Augsburg

Goals 43–16 · 2.95 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

RB Leipzig 64 draws0 FC Augsburg

Goals 28–9 · 3.7 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

RB Leipzig 32 draws0 FC Augsburg

Goals 14–3 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 0–6 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 0–0 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 4–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 2–2 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–2 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 3–3 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 4–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
MetricRB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig at home · 17FC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.912.241.261.00
W / D / L20 / 5 / 912 / 2 / 312 / 7 / 155 / 2 / 10
Goals for / match1.942.351.321.18
Goals against / match1.381.181.791.94
Clean sheets32%35%15%0%
Failed to score9%0%26%35%
Both teams scored62%65%62%65%
Over 2.571%76%62%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.072.441.391.42
xG against / match1.421.431.842.17
xG difference0.651.01-0.46-0.75
Finishing vs xG-0.13-0.09-0.06-0.24
xPts / match1.761.961.171.02
Points vs xPts0.160.270.10-0.02
Game state
Scored first74%88%50%41%
PPG when scoring first2.282.271.761.14
PPG when conceding first0.872.000.750.90
Came back from behind25%40%21%23%
Leads held74%75%57%50%
Minutes leading37%42%24%18%
Minutes level47%47%46%44%
Minutes trailing16%11%30%38%
First goal (min)38414240
First goal conceded (min)48524138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%52%53%45%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%75%49%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.470.290.29
Late goals against0.440.470.290.41
Style
Possession54%56%44%43%
Shots15.817.313.213.2
On target6.07.34.64.2
Shot conversion12%14%10%9%
Shots inside box72%77%64%62%
Big chances created3.64.72.21.9
Corners5.35.94.64.0
xG from set plays22%24%31%36%
Goals from headers14%18%16%20%
Pressure index16.120.19.56.9
Dominant minutes54.561.840.534.2
Pass accuracy84%85%78%78%
Fouls9.38.111.010.8
Cards1.531.352.472.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.113
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.33Home 71% P 71%5.5Draw 17% P 17%8.0Away 12% P 12%

Double Chance

1.12RB Leipzig or Draw 26% P 44%1.16RB Leipzig or Augsburg 25% P 41%1.12RB Leipzig or Tie 26% P 41%2.62Tie or Augsburg 11% P 41%2.75Draw or Augsburg 11% P 15%

Draw No Bet

1.161 81%5.02 19%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 59%2.25No 41% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 69%3.0Under 32% P 31%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 70–72.5% · away 10–12.5% · 534 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home71%71%75%+4.2
Draw17%18%15%-2.5
Away12%11%9%-1.7

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Martin Petersen

Career
91 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.05 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 53 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.554.14+0.7478
Fouls / match23.822.3+1.24
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1037
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 50 220 54'9
2026-01-30 50 240 58'7
2026-01-18 · FC Augsburg 50 250 53'14
2025-12-13 40 261 29'7
2025-11-23 · RB Leipzig 30 120 19'9
2025-10-25 60 261 24'12
2025-09-27 80 240 21'18
2025-05-04 10 200 72'12
2025-04-12 · FC Augsburg 31 230 30'2
2025-03-15 · FC Augsburg 30 160 30'6