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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

SC FreiburgB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
34,100

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
8 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Benjamin Brand

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
14.9° (feels 14.4°)
Wind
1.1
Humidity
75%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

LWLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 3 GA 7 · xG 4.9–8.4 · xPts 4.55

  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–2 xG 0.61–1.34 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–1 xG 1.88–1.3 GER BI
  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 xG 1.02–2.31 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 1–0 xG 0.56–1.3 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–1 xG 0.82–2.15 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WLDDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 2 · xG 7.38–4.38 · xPts 8.8

  • W A Hamburger SV 1–0 xG 1.87–1.41 GER BI
  • D H FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 2.28–0.88 GER BI
  • D H Olympiacos F.C. 0–0 xG 0.52–0.27 UEFA CL
  • L A FC Union Berlin 0–1 xG 1.19–1.0 GER BI
  • W A Olympiacos F.C. 2–0 xG 1.52–0.83 UEFA CL

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 610 draws16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 33–58 · 2.84 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 23 draws5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 16–23 · 3.9 per match · BTTS 90% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 02 draws3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 8–15 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • D SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–3 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.741.65
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 317 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match1.501.942.001.76
Goals against / match1.681.291.381.65
Clean sheets18%12%24%12%
Failed to score26%6%12%24%
Both teams scored62%82%65%65%
Over 2.565%71%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.911.40
xG against / match1.521.311.401.71
xG difference-0.010.580.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG-0.010.060.090.36
xPts / match1.361.711.651.21
Points vs xPts0.020.170.080.44
Game state
Scored first44%59%65%59%
PPG when scoring first2.002.102.232.30
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.830.71
Came back from behind44%70%40%38%
Leads held68%69%68%67%
Minutes leading22%32%40%39%
Minutes level54%50%39%36%
Minutes trailing23%18%20%25%
First goal (min)38373429
First goal conceded (min)42453934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.350.24
Late goals against0.380.290.260.35
Style
Possession48%51%59%57%
Shots12.314.215.211.7
On target4.25.15.23.8
Shot conversion12%14%13%15%
Shots inside box69%69%64%61%
Big chances created2.32.83.73.1
Corners4.14.55.64.5
xG from set plays42%41%27%26%
Goals from headers14%9%19%14%
Pressure index14.318.316.111.6
Dominant minutes51.058.157.149.4
Pass accuracy80%80%88%87%
Fouls9.48.98.68.5
Cards1.621.652.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.9Home 33% P 31%3.5Draw 27% P 28%2.35Away 40% P 41%

Double Chance

1.53SC Freiburg or Draw 19% P 29%1.33SC Freiburg or Bayer Leverkusen 22% P 36%1.61SC Freiburg or Tie 18% P 36%1.4Tie or Bayer Leverkusen 21% P 36%1.36Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 21% P 35%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 61%2.05No 45% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 55%2.0Under 47% P 45%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.2
Draw28%28%24%-4.2
Away41%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%56%56%-0.2

Benjamin Brand

Career
102 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.01 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 59 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.344.14+0.2763
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.39
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.28 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8889
Time added7.36.8+0.4078
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-21 70 240 30'12
2026-02-07 20 191 57'7
2026-01-16 50 230 52'9
2025-12-20 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 30 220 30'8
2025-12-05 30 160 25'6
2025-11-22 20 221 24'9
2025-11-09 · SC Freiburg 40 200 81'8
2025-10-25 40 180 44'11
2025-10-04 30 160 6'8
2025-09-20 20 180 45'8