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Bundesliga · Matchweek 25

Momentum

WOBHamburger SV
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,917

Teams

Coaches
Daniel Bauer · Merlin Polzin
Position
17 · 11
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Florian Exner

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
14.7° (feels 13.1°)
Wind
2.4
Humidity
37%

Where to watch · 418

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

LLDLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 12 · xG 5.76–11.27 · xPts 4.28

  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–4 xG 1.01–3.64 GER BI
  • L H FC Augsburg 2–3 xG 1.64–1.87 GER BI
  • D A RB Leipzig 2–2 xG 0.65–2.82 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 1–2 xG 1.17–1.8 GER BI
  • L A FC Köln 0–1 xG 1.29–1.13 GER BI

Hamburger SV

WWDLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 6.24–10.6 · xPts 4.74

  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 xG 1.41–1.87 GER BI
  • L H RB Leipzig 1–2 xG 0.54–3.39 GER BI
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 1–1 xG 0.73–1.88 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–2 xG 1.72–1.84 GER BI
  • W A FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 1.84–1.63 GER BI

All meetings · 28 matches since 2005

VfL Wolfsburg 129 draws7 Hamburger SV

Goals 37–27 · 2.29 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 36%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 52 draws3 Hamburger SV

Goals 11–8 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 11 draws3 Hamburger SV

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Hamburger SV neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Hamburger SV 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17Hamburger SV all · 34Hamburger SV away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.591.120.82
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 119 / 11 / 143 / 5 / 9
Goals for / match1.321.241.180.88
Goals against / match2.031.881.591.88
Clean sheets6%6%18%24%
Failed to score24%29%29%35%
Both teams scored74%71%65%59%
Over 2.565%65%56%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.581.311.12
xG against / match1.891.691.812.08
xG difference-0.50-0.11-0.50-0.96
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.35-0.14-0.24
xPts / match1.141.341.140.91
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.75-0.02-0.09
Game state
Scored first53%35%35%24%
PPG when scoring first1.441.171.581.00
PPG when conceding first0.130.200.830.70
Came back from behind10%15%36%25%
Leads held35%25%56%50%
Minutes leading27%18%16%12%
Minutes level43%48%58%58%
Minutes trailing30%34%26%29%
First goal (min)35384350
First goal conceded (min)43384041
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%58%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%54%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.240.180.12
Late goals against0.560.470.380.53
Style
Possession45%48%45%45%
Shots11.913.612.311.3
On target4.24.74.64.4
Shot conversion11%9%10%8%
Shots inside box64%66%66%60%
Big chances created2.63.01.91.3
Corners4.45.43.73.6
xG from set plays32%32%29%31%
Goals from headers25%33%8%7%
Pressure index9.112.79.17.8
Dominant minutes38.146.338.335.2
Pass accuracy78%80%80%80%
Fouls11.512.111.811.6
Cards2.152.292.682.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

Hamburger SV

0–15'34
16–30'411
31–45'1010
46–60'910
61–75'86
76–90'613

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253
When behind-0.213
10 min after conceding-0.443

Situations

Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.153

Behind vs level +0.04

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-317 50%1.291.291.351.321.54
3-4-2-110 29%1.31.31.41.462.13
3-4-1-23 9%0.00.673.00.972.31
4-2-3-11 3%1.00.00.00.370.31
4-3-31 3%1.01.01.00.961.67

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 37%3.3Draw 29% P 29%2.75Away 34% P 35%

Double Chance

1.44Wolfsburg or Draw 20% P 33%1.61Tie or Hamburg 18% P 36%1.3Wolfsburg or Hamburg 22% P 36%1.4Wolfsburg or Tie 21% P 36%1.5Draw or Hamburg 19% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 58%2.25No 41% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 51%2.1Under 45% P 49%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 51%1.72Under 54% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-1.6
Draw29%30%32%+2.1
Away35%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Florian Exner

Career
26 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.85 (4.58 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
52%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.044.15+1.8196
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card4.35.4-1.81 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.33+0.6178
Time added9.96.8+3.15100
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 40 140 9'10
2026-01-27 10 141 49'6
2026-01-24 20 150 73'7
2025-12-06 30 210 13'9
2025-11-08 60 160 15'14
2025-10-18 80 302 30'15
2025-09-27 30 220 90'13
2025-09-20 · Hamburger SV 60 250 22'11
2025-08-30 70 250 31'20
2025-05-03 92 291 16'10