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Bundesliga · Matchweek 26

Momentum

SC FreiburgFCU
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
26

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,200

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Steffen Baumgart
Position
8 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-2-2

Referee

Sven Jablonski

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
6.5° (feels 6.5°)
Wind
0.7
Humidity
77%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

LWLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 10 · xG 6.86–7.79 · xPts 5.91

  • L A Genk 0–1 xG 0.3–1.03 UEFA EL
  • D H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–3 xG 3.04–1.81 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–2 xG 0.61–1.34 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–1 xG 1.88–1.3 GER BI
  • L A TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 xG 1.02–2.31 GER BI

FC Union Berlin

DLWLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 5.57–7.51 · xPts 6.02

  • L H Werder Bremen 1–4 xG 1.23–1.94 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 xG 0.14–2.42 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 xG 1.0–1.19 GER BI
  • L A Hamburger SV 2–3 xG 1.84–1.72 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 xG 1.37–0.24 GER BI

All meetings · 14 matches since 2019

SC Freiburg 25 draws7 FC Union Berlin

Goals 13–19 · 2.29 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 43%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 14 draws5 FC Union Berlin

Goals 9–14 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 02 draws3 FC Union Berlin

Goals 2–5 · 1.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L SC Freiburg 0–1 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 1–2 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 2–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 4–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 4–1 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 1–4 FC Union Berlin neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17FC Union Berlin all · 34FC Union Berlin away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.151.00
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 310 / 9 / 155 / 2 / 10
Goals for / match1.501.941.291.06
Goals against / match1.681.291.711.88
Clean sheets18%12%21%18%
Failed to score26%6%24%29%
Both teams scored62%82%62%53%
Over 2.565%71%62%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.371.17
xG against / match1.521.311.481.79
xG difference-0.010.58-0.11-0.62
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.07-0.11
xPts / match1.361.711.371.09
Points vs xPts0.020.17-0.22-0.09
Game state
Scored first44%59%41%35%
PPG when scoring first2.002.102.212.50
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.330.18
Came back from behind44%70%29%17%
Leads held68%69%71%83%
Minutes leading22%32%18%10%
Minutes level54%50%50%54%
Minutes trailing23%18%31%36%
First goal (min)38375363
First goal conceded (min)42454343
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%66%72%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%53%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.500.47
Late goals against0.380.290.410.35
Style
Possession48%51%40%39%
Shots12.314.212.511.7
On target4.25.13.93.5
Shot conversion12%14%10%9%
Shots inside box69%69%73%74%
Big chances created2.32.82.21.9
Corners4.14.55.04.8
xG from set plays42%41%48%46%
Goals from headers14%9%21%18%
Pressure index14.318.39.18.5
Dominant minutes51.058.134.732.1
Pass accuracy80%80%72%72%
Fouls9.48.912.312.5
Cards1.621.652.151.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

FC Union Berlin

0–15'34
16–30'65
31–45'618
46–60'611
61–75'66
76–90'1714

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-119 56%1.211.211.471.441.36
3-5-26 18%0.51.172.670.932.24
5-3-25 15%0.81.02.21.161.45
4-2-3-12 6%3.03.50.52.551.07
3-4-31 3%0.01.02.01.940.21

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 51%3.7Draw 26% P 27%4.0Away 24% P 22%

Double Chance

1.33SC Freiburg or Draw 35% P 39%1.33SC Freiburg or Union Berlin 35% P 36%1.61Draw or Union Berlin 29% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 57%1.95No 48% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 53%1.8Under 53% P 47%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 20–22.5% · 722 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%55%+3.6
Draw27%27%26%-1.4
Away22%21%19%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 47%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Sven Jablonski

Career
115 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
3.53 (3.45 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.22
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.784.14-0.9615
Fouls / match20.622.3-1.67
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.32-1.0818
Time added6.26.8-0.7515
First card
34' on average
Card timing
21% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-12 50 310 13'5
2026-02-28 10 251 20'11
2026-02-19 40 300 37'12
2026-02-14 10 180 90'4
2026-01-24 40 240 44'8
2026-01-20 31 150 61'5
2026-01-13 40 210 45'9
2025-12-19 30 280 53'8
2025-12-10 20 190 65'7
2025-12-06 70 180 10'9