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Bundesliga · Matchweek 27

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05SGE
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,305

Teams

Coaches
Urs Fischer · Riera
Position
14 · 7
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Tobias Stieler

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
14.2° (feels 12.7°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
37%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FSV Mainz 05

DDDWW 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 7.85–5.97 · xPts 7.97

  • W H Sigma Olomouc 2–0 xG 1.98–0.51 UEFA ECL
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 1.49–1.33 GER BI
  • D A Sigma Olomouc 0–0 xG 0.59–0.68 UEFA ECL
  • D H VfB Stuttgart 2–2 xG 2.91–1.17 GER BI
  • D A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 xG 0.88–2.28 GER BI

Eintracht Frankfurt

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 3 · xG 6.6–5.77 · xPts 7.75

  • W H FC Heidenheim 1–0 xG 1.19–0.08 GER BI
  • D A St. Pauli 0–0 xG 0.67–0.59 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 2–0 xG 1.34–0.61 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 2.24–2.73 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0 xG 1.15–1.76 GER BI

All meetings · 37 matches since 2005

FSV Mainz 05 1114 draws12 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 47–50 · 2.62 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 51%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FSV Mainz 05 24 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 11–15 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05 21 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt

Goals 7–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 at home · 17Eintracht Frankfurt all · 34Eintracht Frankfurt away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.181.001.291.12
W / D / L10 / 10 / 144 / 5 / 811 / 11 / 124 / 7 / 6
Goals for / match1.291.241.791.88
Goals against / match1.561.471.912.24
Clean sheets12%12%21%6%
Failed to score29%35%9%12%
Both teams scored62%59%74%88%
Over 2.553%41%68%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.581.741.351.21
xG against / match1.651.401.501.76
xG difference-0.070.34-0.15-0.55
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.500.450.67
xPts / match1.391.601.311.06
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.60-0.020.05
Game state
Scored first47%41%50%41%
PPG when scoring first1.811.711.941.57
PPG when conceding first0.590.440.630.78
Came back from behind33%27%43%50%
Leads held53%50%55%44%
Minutes leading28%23%25%28%
Minutes level43%49%46%42%
Minutes trailing29%28%29%30%
First goal (min)37364133
First goal conceded (min)44453536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%52%56%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%60%58%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.350.380.35
Late goals against0.590.530.560.82
Style
Possession44%46%55%56%
Shots12.113.612.010.9
On target4.24.24.63.9
Shot conversion11%9%15%17%
Shots inside box76%77%67%66%
Big chances created3.23.42.52.4
Corners5.16.24.73.9
xG from set plays39%38%28%22%
Goals from headers18%14%12%12%
Pressure index10.912.912.812.3
Dominant minutes44.050.348.544.5
Pass accuracy75%76%83%83%
Fouls11.011.810.410.6
Cards2.241.942.062.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Eintracht Frankfurt

0–15'59
16–30'118
31–45'1110
46–60'119
61–75'1010
76–90'1319

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Eintracht Frankfurt · 3 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.76

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.023

Game state

When ahead+0.253
When level-0.193
When behind+0.102
10 min after conceding-0.073
10 min after scoring+0.763

Situations

Away+0.042
4+ days rest+0.173

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.223
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.253

Ahead vs level +0.44 · Behind vs level +0.29

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

Eintracht Frankfurt

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · conceding 11

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-110 29%1.51.71.61.211.39
3-4-2-110 29%0.71.52.51.321.98
4-1-4-14 12%2.02.51.751.791.21
4-3-34 12%1.01.251.51.380.87
4-5-12 6%1.53.53.01.551.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 44%3.6Draw 26% P 27%3.25Away 29% P 28%

Double Chance

1.36Mainz or Draw 35% P 36%1.28Mainz or Eintracht Frankfurt 37% P 36%1.66Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt 28% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 58%2.2No 42% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 53%2.0Under 47% P 47%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%43%-0.3
Draw27%28%30%+2.4
Away28%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%55%+0.8

Tobias Stieler

Career
284 matches · 16 seasons
Cards / match
4.05 (3.83 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 69 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.594.15-1.384
Fouls / match21.222.3-1.05
Fouls per card6.05.4+0.86 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.360.33+0.3563
Time added7.06.8+0.0952
First card
33' on average
Card timing
24% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-19 50 140 19'9
2026-02-28 · FSV Mainz 05 30 220 66'11
2026-02-19 70 280 4'7
2026-02-08 41 202 6'7
2026-01-28 31 270 26'8
2026-01-24 10 190 89'4
2025-12-20 · Eintracht Frankfurt 20 11
2025-12-06 61 171 2'12
2025-11-26 50 220 11'7
2025-11-23 20 180 38'8