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Bundesliga · Matchweek 28

Momentum

FCUSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Capacity
22,012
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,012

Teams

Coaches
Steffen Baumgart · Alexander Blessin
Position
12 · 16
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Tobias Welz

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
14.1° (feels 13.4°)
Wind
8.8
Humidity
72%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Union Berlin

WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 3 GA 9 · xG 3.3–10.8 · xPts 3.15

  • L A FC Bayern München 0–4 xG 0.31–3.85 GER BI
  • W A SC Freiburg 1–0 xG 0.64–1.39 GER BI
  • L H Werder Bremen 1–4 xG 1.23–1.94 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 xG 0.14–2.42 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 xG 1.0–1.19 GER BI

St. Pauli

WWDLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 4.24–8.12 · xPts 4.46

  • L H SC Freiburg 1–2 xG 1.79–2.29 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–2 xG 0.64–0.69 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 xG 0.59–0.67 GER BI
  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 xG 0.81–2.84 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 2–1 xG 0.41–1.62 GER BI

All meetings · 4 matches since 2024

FC Union Berlin 21 draws1 St. Pauli

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 10 · 4 matches

FC Union Berlin 21 draws1 St. Pauli

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 5 · 4 matches

FC Union Berlin 21 draws1 St. Pauli

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Recent meetings

  • D FC Union Berlin 1–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–1 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 3–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Union Berlin 1–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Union Berlin all · 34FC Union Berlin at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.151.290.760.53
W / D / L10 / 9 / 155 / 7 / 56 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.291.530.850.71
Goals against / match1.711.531.761.71
Clean sheets21%24%15%18%
Failed to score24%18%38%41%
Both teams scored62%71%56%47%
Over 2.562%71%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.371.560.990.85
xG against / match1.481.161.671.70
xG difference-0.110.40-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.03-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.371.640.970.83
Points vs xPts-0.22-0.35-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first41%47%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.212.001.701.40
PPG when conceding first0.330.570.290.09
Came back from behind29%44%17%8%
Leads held71%62%54%40%
Minutes leading18%27%13%12%
Minutes level50%47%50%47%
Minutes trailing31%26%37%40%
First goal (min)53455047
First goal conceded (min)43444034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half66%62%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%58%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.530.210.12
Late goals against0.410.470.380.35
Style
Possession40%41%44%44%
Shots12.513.210.39.9
On target3.94.43.42.5
Shot conversion10%12%8%7%
Shots inside box73%71%59%57%
Big chances created2.22.51.71.5
Corners5.05.24.73.6
xG from set plays48%50%34%19%
Goals from headers21%23%24%25%
Pressure index9.19.88.46.2
Dominant minutes34.737.338.232.0
Pass accuracy72%70%77%77%
Fouls12.312.19.69.7
Cards2.152.591.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Union Berlin

0–15'34
16–30'65
31–45'618
46–60'611
61–75'66
76–90'1714

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-119 56%1.211.211.471.441.36
3-5-26 18%0.51.172.670.932.24
5-3-25 15%0.81.02.21.161.45
4-2-3-12 6%3.03.50.52.551.07
4-2-2-21 3%3.01.00.00.641.39

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 46%3.2Draw 30% P 29%3.6Away 26% P 25%

Double Chance

1.28Union Berlin or Draw 37%1.36Union Berlin or St Pauli 35%1.66Draw or St Pauli 28%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

2.05Yes 45%1.7No 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.5Over 38% P 37%1.53Under 62% P 63%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 22.5–25% · 565 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home46%46%48%+1.4
Draw29%30%28%-1.5
Away25%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 41%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 35–37.5% · 819 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.537%36%41%+4.2

Tobias Welz

Career
167 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.96 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 50 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.564.14+0.7682
Fouls / match23.322.3+0.77
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.37 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.32-0.5622
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
26' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-14 60 230 32'7
2026-02-27 50 190 15'10
2026-02-13 50 150 9'8
2026-01-23 · St. Pauli 20 280 7'7
2026-01-17 70 220 16'6
2025-12-20 70 300 45'10
2025-11-29 70 160 11'7
2025-10-18 40 250 18'10
2025-09-27 70 360 4'12
2025-09-13 · FC Union Berlin 11 252 57'12