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Bundesliga · Matchweek 28

Momentum

B04WOB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,619

Teams

Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand · Dieter Hecking
Position
6 · 17
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Martin Petersen

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
15.8° (feels 15.1°)
Wind
3.0
Humidity
67%

Where to watch · 397

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

DDDLD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 10 · xG 7.66–9.52 · xPts 5.72

  • D A FC Heidenheim 3–3 xG 1.63–1.57 GER BI
  • L A Arsenal 0–2 xG 0.64–2.02 UEFA CL
  • D H FC Bayern München 1–1 xG 2.86–1.28 GER BI
  • D H Arsenal 1–1 xG 0.73–1.61 UEFA CL
  • D A SC Freiburg 3–3 xG 1.81–3.04 GER BI

VfL Wolfsburg

LLLDL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 11 · xG 6.15–9.74 · xPts 5.27

  • L H Werder Bremen 0–1 xG 0.94–0.38 GER BI
  • D A TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 xG 0.37–1.92 GER BI
  • L H Hamburger SV 1–2 xG 2.18–1.92 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–4 xG 1.01–3.64 GER BI
  • L H FC Augsburg 2–3 xG 1.64–1.87 GER BI

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 209 draws13 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 83–66 · 3.55 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 74%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 63 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 21–12 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 41 draws0 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 15–7 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 17VfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.741.820.851.12
W / D / L17 / 8 / 99 / 4 / 47 / 8 / 195 / 4 / 8
Goals for / match2.002.241.321.41
Goals against / match1.381.122.032.18
Clean sheets24%35%6%6%
Failed to score12%0%24%18%
Both teams scored65%65%74%76%
Over 2.559%53%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.912.421.391.20
xG against / match1.401.101.892.10
xG difference0.511.33-0.50-0.89
Finishing vs xG0.09-0.19-0.070.21
xPts / match1.652.101.140.93
Points vs xPts0.08-0.27-0.280.19
Game state
Scored first65%71%53%71%
PPG when scoring first2.232.171.441.58
PPG when conceding first0.831.000.130.00
Came back from behind40%43%10%0%
Leads held68%69%35%42%
Minutes leading40%42%27%36%
Minutes level39%42%43%38%
Minutes trailing20%16%30%26%
First goal (min)34383532
First goal conceded (min)39484348
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%50%51%46%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%47%62%68%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.210.18
Late goals against0.260.180.560.65
Style
Possession59%61%45%42%
Shots15.218.611.910.2
On target5.26.54.23.7
Shot conversion13%12%11%14%
Shots inside box64%66%64%60%
Big chances created3.74.32.62.2
Corners5.66.74.43.5
xG from set plays27%28%32%32%
Goals from headers19%24%25%17%
Pressure index16.120.59.15.6
Dominant minutes57.164.838.129.8
Pass accuracy88%88%78%76%
Fouls8.68.611.511.0
Cards2.182.122.152.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.42Home 67% P 67%4.75Draw 20% P 19%7.0Away 14% P 14%

Double Chance

1.1Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 43%1.18Bayer Leverkusen or Wolfsburg 40%2.75Draw or Wolfsburg 17%

Draw No Bet

1.141 83%5.52 17%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 64%2.62Under 36% P 36%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 65–67.5% · away 12.5–15% · 566 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home67%66%69%+3.3
Draw19%20%20%-0.7
Away14%14%11%-2.7

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 58%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Martin Petersen

Career
91 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.05 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 53 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.554.14+0.7478
Fouls / match23.822.3+1.24
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1037
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-07 20 171 62'12
2026-02-14 50 220 54'9
2026-01-30 · VfL Wolfsburg 50 240 58'7
2026-01-18 50 250 53'14
2025-12-13 40 261 29'7
2025-11-23 30 120 19'9
2025-10-25 · VfL Wolfsburg 60 261 24'12
2025-09-27 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 80 240 21'18
2025-05-04 10 200 72'12
2025-04-12 31 230 30'2