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Bundesliga · Matchweek 28

Momentum

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now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
60,000

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Niko Kovač
Position
3 · 2
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Robert Schröder

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
14.6° (feels 14.0°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
74%

Where to watch · 397

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

DLWLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 7.18–8.32 · xPts 6.31

  • W A FC Augsburg 5–2 xG 2.36–1.5 GER BI
  • L A Porto 0–2 xG 1.62–1.59 UEFA EL
  • W H RB Leipzig 1–0 xG 1.32–1.0 GER BI
  • L H Porto 1–2 xG 0.71–1.33 UEFA EL
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 2–2 xG 1.17–2.91 GER BI

Borussia Dortmund

LLWWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 10 · xG 12.36–8.14 · xPts 8.32

  • W H Hamburger SV 3–2 xG 5.7–1.15 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 2–0 xG 2.56–0.5 GER BI
  • W A FC Köln 2–1 xG 1.48–1.57 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 1.53–2.21 GER BI
  • L A Atalanta 1–4 xG 1.09–2.71 UEFA CL

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

VfB Stuttgart 910 draws19 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 55–81 · 3.58 per match · BTTS 68% · over 2.5 74%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 42 draws4 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 17–20 · 3.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 31 draws1 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 11–7 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 5–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17Borussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.292.151.88
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 222 / 7 / 59 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match2.091.762.061.76
Goals against / match1.440.941.001.06
Clean sheets32%47%44%35%
Failed to score9%18%6%6%
Both teams scored62%41%50%59%
Over 2.574%47%56%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.831.40
xG against / match1.541.201.251.42
xG difference0.260.800.58-0.02
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.230.230.36
xPts / match1.581.861.691.37
Points vs xPts0.240.430.460.51
Game state
Scored first53%53%76%76%
PPG when scoring first2.332.782.502.38
PPG when conceding first1.271.861.000.25
Came back from behind56%71%54%40%
Leads held75%92%79%69%
Minutes leading32%30%42%36%
Minutes level47%58%46%52%
Minutes trailing21%11%12%12%
First goal (min)40433944
First goal conceded (min)38374858
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%54%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%68%72%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.590.53
Late goals against0.500.470.350.53
Style
Possession58%58%53%51%
Shots15.216.613.111.4
On target6.16.24.84.2
Shot conversion14%11%16%16%
Shots inside box66%65%74%77%
Big chances created3.33.73.22.5
Corners5.75.95.33.4
xG from set plays24%22%36%34%
Goals from headers9%10%23%27%
Pressure index19.217.516.812.0
Dominant minutes61.563.455.446.4
Pass accuracy84%84%83%82%
Fouls9.69.311.611.6
Cards1.911.941.912.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%4.0Draw 24% P 25%2.75Away 34% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4VfB Stuttgart or Draw 33%1.25VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund 37%1.61Draw or Borussia Dortmund 29%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66%2.75No 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 65%3.0Under 32% P 35%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 55%2.1Under 44% P 45%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 32.5–35% · 189 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%40%-0.7
Draw25%26%22%-4.0
Away33%33%38%+4.7

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%66%69%+3.2

Robert Schröder

Career
94 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.36 (4.19 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match23.122.3+0.61
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.32+0.4470
Time added6.46.8-0.5430
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.38

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-06 11 191 55'9
2026-02-21 40 180 42'9
2026-01-31 41 210 53'9
2026-01-17 30 340 42'10
2026-01-10 30 160 21'8
2025-12-11 70 291 7'6
2025-12-06 50 231 22'16
2025-07-24 50 250 68'6
2025-05-10 10 220 67'13
2025-04-19 71 290 27'9