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Bundesliga · Matchweek 29

Momentum

BVBB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Capacity
81,365
Surface
grass
Attendance
81,365

Teams

Coaches
Niko Kovač · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
2 · 6
Formation
3-5-1-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Deniz Aytekin

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
18.9° (feels 18.1°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
49%

Where to watch · 397

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Borussia Dortmund

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 6 · xG 11.87–6.17 · xPts 8.97

  • W A VfB Stuttgart 2–0 xG 0.61–0.74 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 3–2 xG 5.7–1.15 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 2–0 xG 2.56–0.5 GER BI
  • W A FC Köln 2–1 xG 1.48–1.57 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 1.53–2.21 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

DDLDW 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 10 · xG 9.94–8.31 · xPts 7.34

  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 6–3 xG 4.09–1.83 GER BI
  • D A FC Heidenheim 3–3 xG 1.63–1.57 GER BI
  • L A Arsenal 0–2 xG 0.64–2.02 UEFA CL
  • D H FC Bayern München 1–1 xG 2.86–1.28 GER BI
  • D H Arsenal 1–1 xG 0.73–1.61 UEFA CL

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

Borussia Dortmund 209 draws13 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 80–58 · 3.29 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund 52 draws3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 19–17 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund 21 draws2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 9–8 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–4 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–4 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBorussia Dortmund all · 34Borussia Dortmund at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.152.411.741.65
W / D / L22 / 7 / 513 / 2 / 217 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match2.062.352.001.76
Goals against / match1.000.941.381.65
Clean sheets44%53%24%12%
Failed to score6%6%12%24%
Both teams scored50%41%65%65%
Over 2.556%59%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.251.911.40
xG against / match1.251.081.401.71
xG difference0.581.180.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG0.230.100.090.36
xPts / match1.692.011.651.21
Points vs xPts0.460.400.080.44
Game state
Scored first76%76%65%59%
PPG when scoring first2.502.622.232.30
PPG when conceding first1.001.750.830.71
Came back from behind54%67%40%38%
Leads held79%87%68%67%
Minutes leading42%48%40%39%
Minutes level46%40%39%36%
Minutes trailing12%13%20%25%
First goal (min)39343429
First goal conceded (min)48353934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%50%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%62%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.590.650.350.24
Late goals against0.350.180.260.35
Style
Possession53%56%59%57%
Shots13.114.815.211.7
On target4.85.45.23.8
Shot conversion16%16%13%15%
Shots inside box74%72%64%61%
Big chances created3.23.93.73.1
Corners5.37.25.64.5
xG from set plays36%38%27%26%
Goals from headers23%20%19%14%
Pressure index16.821.516.111.6
Dominant minutes55.464.557.149.4
Pass accuracy83%85%88%87%
Fouls11.611.58.68.5
Cards1.911.592.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Borussia Dortmund

0–15'92
16–30'54
31–45'185
46–60'85
61–75'106
76–90'2012

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.772
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.772
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 74%2.122.081.01.721.35
3-4-34 12%2.52.00.751.870.97
3-5-23 9%3.02.330.672.960.8
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.01.210.67
3-4-1-21 3%1.03.03.01.561.77

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -3.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 48% P 45%3.9Draw 24% P 25%3.4Away 28% P 30%

Double Chance

1.3Borussia Dortmund or Draw 36%1.25Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen 38%1.8Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 26%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 63%2.62Under 36% P 37%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 30–32.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%43%45%+1.8
Draw25%26%25%-0.8
Away30%31%30%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Deniz Aytekin

Career
307 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.08 (3.87 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
19.4 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.014.15-0.4633
Fouls / match21.922.3-0.51
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.33+0.6582
Time added6.96.8-0.0244
First card
34' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.3

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-04 51 240 41'7
2026-03-15 30 210 39'9
2026-02-28 30 200 21'7
2026-02-07 11 210 52'9
2026-01-18 20 170 1'5
2025-11-08 50 243 11'18
2025-11-01 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 20 140 65'6
2025-10-19 50 210 33'11
2025-09-28 41 351 38'12
2025-09-12 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 82 191 19'12