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Bundesliga · Matchweek 30

Momentum

BMGFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
30

Venue

Stadium
Stadion im Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach
Capacity
54,057
Surface
grass
Attendance
50,245

Teams

Coaches
Eugen Polanski · Urs Fischer
Position
15 · 10
Formation
3-5-1-1 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Tobias Welz

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
10.3° (feels 9.3°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
74%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Borussia Mönchengladbach

LWDDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 10 · xG 5.79–8.53 · xPts 5.25

  • L A RB Leipzig 0–1 xG 1.85–2.36 GER BI
  • D H FC Heidenheim 2–2 xG 1.07–1.25 GER BI
  • D A FC Köln 3–3 xG 0.93–1.57 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 2–0 xG 0.69–0.64 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–4 xG 1.24–2.71 GER BI

FSV Mainz 05

WWWLL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 5.73–7.46 · xPts 6.21

  • L A Strasbourg 0–4 xG 0.34–2.93 UEFA ECL
  • L H SC Freiburg 0–1 xG 0.74–0.61 GER BI
  • W H Strasbourg 2–0 xG 1.55–1.08 UEFA ECL
  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 xG 1.67–1.43 GER BI
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 xG 1.43–1.4 GER BI

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1512 draws11 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 51–44 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach 16 draws3 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 9–15 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach 13 draws1 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 5–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • D Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 4–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBorussia Mönchengladbach all · 34Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · 17FSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.121.411.181.35
W / D / L9 / 11 / 146 / 6 / 510 / 10 / 146 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.241.411.291.35
Goals against / match1.561.411.561.65
Clean sheets38%47%12%12%
Failed to score35%35%29%24%
Both teams scored41%35%62%65%
Over 2.553%53%53%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.351.391.581.41
xG against / match1.511.431.651.89
xG difference-0.16-0.04-0.07-0.48
Finishing vs xG-0.120.02-0.28-0.06
xPts / match1.271.341.391.18
Points vs xPts-0.150.07-0.220.17
Game state
Scored first41%53%47%53%
PPG when scoring first2.292.331.811.89
PPG when conceding first0.070.000.590.75
Came back from behind18%17%33%40%
Leads held64%67%53%54%
Minutes leading19%25%28%34%
Minutes level52%53%43%36%
Minutes trailing28%22%29%30%
First goal (min)48373737
First goal conceded (min)40424444
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half60%54%48%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%46%57%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.410.260.18
Late goals against0.350.240.590.65
Style
Possession47%46%44%42%
Shots11.611.512.110.5
On target4.14.54.24.2
Shot conversion11%12%11%13%
Shots inside box66%64%76%75%
Big chances created1.92.23.23.0
Corners3.83.35.13.9
xG from set plays34%39%39%40%
Goals from headers20%26%18%22%
Pressure index9.910.510.98.9
Dominant minutes41.942.844.037.8
Pass accuracy82%82%75%74%
Fouls10.810.611.010.1
Cards1.852.002.242.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Borussia Mönchengladbach

0–15'68
16–30'59
31–45'612
46–60'32
61–75'910
76–90'1312

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Mönchengladbach · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)+0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-1.122

Game state

When level+0.163
When behind-0.463
10 min after conceding-0.463

Situations

Away-0.222
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.222
As underdog-0.222

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.243
Conceded late (76+)+0.152

Ahead vs level -0.54 · Behind vs level -0.62

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-113 38%1.461.851.621.461.33
4-2-3-14 12%1.01.01.751.231.43
5-4-14 12%1.00.752.251.222.09
4-4-23 9%0.670.331.00.741.35
4-3-32 6%0.00.52.01.52.2

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.5Draw 27% P 27%3.1Away 31% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36Borussia M'gladbach or Draw 34%1.28Borussia M'gladbach or Mainz 37%1.61Draw or Mainz 29%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 53%2.0Under 47% P 47%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%41%-0.1
Draw27%28%26%-1.9
Away30%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Tobias Welz

Career
167 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.96 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 50 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.564.14+0.7682
Fouls / match23.322.3+0.77
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.37 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.32-0.5622
Time added6.96.8-0.0144
First card
26' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-05 21 180 85'5
2026-03-14 60 230 32'7
2026-02-27 50 190 15'10
2026-02-13 · FSV Mainz 05 50 150 9'8
2026-01-23 20 280 7'7
2026-01-17 70 220 16'6
2025-12-20 70 300 45'10
2025-11-29 70 160 11'7
2025-10-18 40 250 18'10
2025-09-27 70 360 4'12